A bearish week

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -3pts at 2461. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.4% and 0.1% respectively. VIX settled +4.9% to 12.12. Near term outlook offers downside to at least the 2440s. More broadly, the 2350s seem probable by early October.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little weak, occasionally turning fractionally positive, but for the most part, it was a day of micro chop.

Whilst equities saw micro chop, it was notable that volatility stayed positive across the day, with the VIX settling in the low 12s. Near term offers the mid teens, and its difficult not to see the key 20 threshold being at least briefly hit by mid October.
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sp'weekly

A net weekly decline of -15pts (0.6%) to 2461. Clearly, the mid term trend from early 2016 is still intact. Equity bears need a decisive break <2400 to cause some technical damage. On balance, that does look probable, certainly by the first half of October.
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A bullish sign for next week?

... and that concludes the week.

Goodnight from London
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*the weekend post will appear Sat'12pm, and will detail the US monthly indexes

Moderately choppy

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -0.4pts at 2465. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.4% and -0.2% respectively. VIX settled -0.7% at 11.55. Near term outlook offers a sig' wave lower to at least 2445/40 zone within 1-3 days. More broadly, the 2350s seem probable by early October.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened fractionally higher, saw a moderate swing lower (intra low 2460), and then further chop across the afternoon. Its notable that underlying MACD cycle remains on the high side, and in theory, the market could cycle lower for a good 3-6 days.

Market volatility remains relatively subdued. Today's low of sp'2460 was only enough to generate VIX 12.07, before cooling back to the mid 11s. Near term offers at least the 2445/40 zone, which should equate to VIX 14/15s. Things would get real interesting with any price action above the recent high of 17.28. The key 20 threshold will surely be seen between now and mid October.
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Something to consider...

GE, monthly

I recognise that some will say '.. ohh, but it doesn't matter anymore', but I still see General Electric as an important global company, and one to consider as reflective of the global market/economy. Its been a rough year for GE, and with the loss of the $27s, the stock is already close to the key $22 threshold.

If the $22s are lost, other than soft psy' level support at $20, the next big threshold is not until the $13s.

Main market implications into 2018? Your comments are most welcome on this issue.

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Goodnight from London 

A natural bounce

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +7pts at 2465 (intra high 2469). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.5% and +0.2% respectively. VIX -4.9% at 11.63. Near term outlook offers the 2430/20s within 2-4 trading days. More broadly, the key 2400 threshold looks set to be at least briefly broken this Sept/Oct.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities continued the bounce from the Tuesday afternoon low of sp'2446. The closing hour saw an intra high of 2469.64, just fractionally shy of the upper gap zone of 2470/76. Its possible that might be partly filled tomorrow, but broadly.. renewed weakness to the 2430/20s seems very probable.

With equities continuing to claw upward, the VIX was in melt mode, settling lower in the mid 11s. If sp'2430/20s within the near term, that should equate to VIX back in the mid teens. For the key 20 threshold, we'll surely need sp<2400, and that looks far more viable in late Sept/early Oct'.
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Sunset, 2.25pm EST... as summer is waning

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Extra charts in AH @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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