A very mixed week

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +3pts at 2441. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.9% and 0.1% respectively. VIX settled -3.3% at 15.51. Prime target of sp'2435 still needs to be hit during normal trading hours, and will be due on Monday, before high threat of another big push upward.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities were a little weak in pre-market, but weak CPI data was the old excuse of 'no rate hikes = bullish', and the market opened a little higher. From there, a great deal of minor chop, leaning upward into the afternoon. There was a notable swing lower from 2.15pm, but (surprisingly), none of the indexes broke a new intraday low.

It is notable that the sp' settled with a black-fail candle. Those certainly lean to the bears, and we are still yet to hit at least the upper end of the 2435/25 gap zone.

Market volatility was choppy, but remained elevated. The Friday close of 15.51, was the highest weekly close since late Oct'2016.
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A very mixed week...

sp'weekly

A new historic high of 2490.87 on Tuesday, but swinging lower to 2437.75 on mainstream bearish market chatter, and the geo-political war talk between Trump and NK.
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Moody skies to end the week

Extra charts in AH @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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*the weekend post will appear Sat'12pm, and will detail the US monthly indexes

Equities whacked

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, sp -35pts at 2438. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.2% and -1.7% respectively. VIX settled +44.4% at 16.04. Prime target of sp'2435 is due on Friday. Things would turn exceptionally bearish with a weekly close of sp <2425 and VIX >15.20.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately lower, and for the first time since May 17th, the market slid lower across the day. Even Trump didn't help in the late afternoon, as he complained about himself not making 'strong enough' remarks about North Korea.

With equities significantly lower, market volatility jumped at the open, and climbed across the day, with the VIX settling at the highest level since Nov'8th 2016.
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A special note

For those of you who don't subscribe to me, I wanted to make something clear, as the next post here will not be until after the Friday close.

If we see a Friday close <sp'2425, and with VIX settling in the 14s (>15.20 to be decisive), it would merit alarm bells for next Monday.

If both of those parameters are seen tomorrow - around 3.45pm EST, the cautious bulls will bail into the weekend.

... and the bolder bears will launch 'mini-crash' speculative short positions into the weekend.
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Sunset, London city, 3.20pm EST

Extra charts in AH (usually after 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk 

Goodnight from London
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Washing out

US equity indexes closed somewhat mixed, sp -0.9pts at 2474. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and -0.9% respectively. VIX settled +1.4% at 11.11. Near term outlook offers a washout within the sp'2435/25 zone, before resuming upward to the 2500s in September.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately lower, whilst most other world markets saw sig' declines. There was naturally a bounce, with most indexes leaning upward into the close.

Yesterday's high of 2490.87 marks a key short term high. Prime downside target remains 2435, as a partial gap fill of 2435/25 remains a very basic target.

Market volatility is finally picking up, with the VIX opening in the 12s, and managing to settle higher (if fractionally) for a second day. SP'2435 would arguably equate to the mid teens... much like the washout in mid May.
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Something to consider

Its a huge issue, but I thought I would throw this one out there...

sp'weekly5 - wave count/fib retrace.

A 50% retrace of the gains from 2009 would take the US market to the mid 1500s, an effective back test of the 2000/2007 double top.

To be clear though, right now, there is still zero reason for anyone (other than day trading maniacs) from attempting to short this market, as the mid term trends are still (almost entirely) intact.
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*ohh, and yes... commodities, oil/metals have largely failed to participate, but I thought I'd leave the legacy note (from 2-3 years ago) on there.

Goodnight from London
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