Moderate swings

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, sp -8pts at 2344 (intra low 2341). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.8% and -1.3% respectively. VIX settled +4.6% at 15.77. Near term outlook offers chop into the Easter weekend. A break to new historic highs >sp'2400 remains on the menu before end month.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

With the Easter three day break ahead, price action in US equities is still broadly a series of moderate swings. Sure.. there aren't many willing buyers out there, but neither can the bears muster any wide ranging sustained/significant downside. Yes, the two leaders had a rough day, but the headline indexes (sp, dow, nasdaq) only saw moderate weakness. Indeed, the last three weeks have been just a series of moderate swings.

The VIX broke into the 16s in early morning - the highest level since Nov'10th 2016. The key 20 threshold is certainly a lot closer than it was. Cyclically we're on the very high side (daily RSI 70), and its probable that the VIX will cool to the 14s into the Thursday/weekly close.
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Trump causing problems

Trump's comments - via the WSJ, really caused some havoc in the closing hour. The USD swung lower, with a corresponding surge in Gold. The market is going to remain very vulnerable (both ways) to such sporadic news stories.

It was further reported that the Trump administration will not be labelling China as a currency manipulator. That is a major policy change from that relentlessly touted during the election campaign, and it sure won't be the only one in the days... and years ahead.

Goodnight from London
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Pre-Easter washout

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -3pts at 2353 (intra low 2337). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and +0.7% respectively. VIX settled +7.3% at 15.07. Near term outlook offers further moderate swings, with a Thursday/weekly settlement somewhere within the 2350/70 zone. A push to new historic highs in the 2400s is still on the menu before end month.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

I can kinda understand if some of the equity bears were a little excited this morning, as last Monday's spike floor of 2344 was taken out. Yet, there was a rather typical latter day recovery. The closing candle was a very stark reversal candle.. with a pretty powerful spike floor.

Volatility was significantly higher, seeing an intra high of 15.88, the highest level since Nov'11th 2016. Naturally, as equities recovered into the afternoon, the VIX cooled to the low 15s.

Keep in mind, its a short week... many traders aren't even around, and on balance, the remaining two trading days left of the week will surely just be further moderate swings.

Goodnight from London
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Euphoria is still some ways away

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +1pt at 2357 (intra low 2351). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.8% and 0.2% respectively. VIX settled +9.2% at 14.05. Near term outlook offers moderate chop into the 3 day Easter break. Broader upside to the 2400s looks a given before end month.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities saw a day of moderate swings, as the market is still trying to cope with a simmering of mainstream chatter about middle eastern geo-politics.

Its notable that the VIX settled in the 14s, the highest close since Dec'2nd 2016. Cyclically, VIX is on the high side, and barring any more 'surprise Syria/Korean news', the VIX should melt lower into the Easter weekend.
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Mainstream chatter

This lunchtime's clown finance TV show covered the latest target from MS, who are now seeking the sp'2700s.

My own year end target of 2683 is indeed comfortably on track. It'll require the 2500s no later than Sept'.

The bears can't tout anything unless we break the mid term rising trend. Its that simple. Anyone calling a near term multi-year top is to be dismissed as an idiot. But then, most of those same names have been at it for years. They've not learnt a gods damn thing.

Goodnight from London
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