Tech leading the way

US equities closed moderately lower, sp -7pts at 2352 (intra high 2378). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.1% and -1.2% respectively. VIX settled +9.3% at 12.89. Near term outlook offers an attempt to clear big resistance of 2380/90, but the 2400s look far more viable in the second half of the month.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

With the 'good ADP jobs news' being seen as such, US equities opened higher, and battled upward into the afternoon. By 2pm the market was stuck just a few points under big resistance of 2380. With a press release from Print HQ - that noted some officials are now looking to reduce the balance sheet, the market saw a significant swing lower to 2350.

The daily closing candle is spiky on the upside, indicative of overhead resistance. An eventual push into the 2400s still looks a given.. regardless of any further swings.

Volatility is still broadly subdued, with the VIX printing 10.90 ahead of the the FOMC minutes, but then surging into the close, but notably.. still shy of the teens.
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Technology stocks continue to lead...

Nasdaq comp', 20yr

On the giant multi-decade chart, we see the Nasdaq powering upward, today breaking a new historic high of 5936. We're almost 20% above the giant psy' level of 5000. Does anyone think we'll trade under 5K any time soon? Seriously, its a valid question.
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Meanwhile, it was just another reasonable spring day here in the metropolis...

Goodnight from London
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Mainstream spooked by yields

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +1pt at 2360 (intra low 2350). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.2% and -0.1% respectively. VIX settled -4.8% at 11.79. Near term outlook offers a test of big overhead resistance of 2380/90. A break into the 2400s looks overly difficult until the latter half of April.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities saw some morning weakness, but then swung upward... closing in minor chop mode. Price structure across the last few days is a viable baby bull flag.. which argues at least for a test of sp'2380 within 3-4 days.

Volatility remains broadly subdued.. although again, we did VIX in the 13s today. If sp'2380... a weekly VIX settlement in the 10s is on the menu.

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Meanwhile... on clown finance TV...

As US bond yields have recently cooled, many within the mainstream have started to get a little spooked. I can kinda understand it. We've seen financial stocks cool, but then those have hyper-ramped since summer 2016. The recent cooling is arguably just a natural retrace.

This mainstream concern is largely just a case of lack of perspective. Did everyone already forget Bank of America was trading in the $11s last June? Does everyone still not realise the importance of last November's breakout above the $18 threshold?

The notion that the financial's bullish run - which really only began in Nov'2016, is at/near an end, is nonsense.

I've near zero concern unless the fed fail to raise rates this June or July. Anyone touting a massive equity collapse needs to shut up and go stare at the following for a few hours...

TLT, monthly2

Price structure is a very clear bear flag, and TLT looks primed for a broader decline to $100.. whether by year end or in early 2018... it makes little difference.
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Extra charts in AH via https://twitter.com/permabear_uk    Retweeting guarantees citizenship.

Goodnight from London
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Moderate weakness

US equity indexes closed moderately weak, sp -3pts at 2358 (intra low 2344). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.3% and -1.2% respectively. VIX settled +0.1% at 12.38. Near term outlook offers a test of the big resistance zone of 2380/90 before the weekend.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

The market opened in minor chop mode, and whilst there weren't many sellers.. there were even fewer willing to buy. With the sp' at 2344, the VIX hit 13.59 in the morning, but then melted all the way into the close. Yes, we're now more regularly seeing the low teens, but are the 13/14s something for the volatility bulls to be excited about? The key 20 threshold still looks well out of range.
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This past weekend was partly spent completing issue 2 of a report for the Gold Miners. If its a sector you have an interest in... then support my work and buy a copy!

For details: http://permabeardoomster.blogspot.com/p/research-reports.html
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Another day closer to summer

Goodnight from London