Bearish end to the week

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -2pts at 2343. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and +0.1% respectively. VIX settled -1.2% at 12.96. Near term outlook still offers threat of a test of the rising 50dma in the low sp'2330s.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was a day of swings, with morning strength to 2356, but then latter day weakness to 2335 - fractionally breaking the Wed' low.

With equities turning moderately lower in the afternoon, the VIX briefly saw the 14s, before cooling due to a closing hour equity ramp.
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As for Trump pulling the healthcare bill, it was never going to be easy, but its clearly a sign of weakness as even some republicans won't support their President. It doesn't bode well for subsequent tax or infrastructure bills, which the market has used as a (valid) excuse for powerful gains since last November.

I would hope we could all agree though, some drama to end the week, is usually a good thing, right?

Goodnight from London
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*the weekend post will appear Sat' 12pm, and will detail the US weekly indexes

Twitchy market

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp -2pts at 2345. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.6% and +0.6% respectively. VIX settled +2.4% at 13.12. Near term outlook offers high threat of a test of the 50dma, which will be around 2330 early Friday morning. Broadly though, another push into the 2400s looks a given into April earnings.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was a pretty choppy day in equity land, as the market was naturally twitchy due to the looming healthcare bill. There was some distinct weakness into the close, with the spiky daily candle suggestive of further weakness on Friday. On balance, no sustained price action under the 50dma.

VIX saw an intra high 13.17, as today was the first time we've seen the 13s in 'normal trading' since Jan'19th. Clearly, if the main market opens sharply lower tomorrow morning, 14s will be due... 15s on a stretch.
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As for the healthcare bill

I'm pretty much a cheerleader for Trump... and was one of those few people who foresaw his presidency a long... long time ago. Yet even Trump is entirely failing to address the core problem within American healthcare.

Denniger of 'Market Ticker' has droned on about this issue for many years, and I shall merely refer you to any of his recent articles on the matter.   See http://market-ticker.org

Spring sunset.. 2.20pm EST

I'm refraining from making any comments on yesterday's madness in the city. Suffice to add... this afternoon's sunshine was something of a relief.

Goodnight from London
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Battling to bounce

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +4pts at 2348 (intra low 2336). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and -0.1% respectively. VIX settled +2.7% at 12.81. Near term outlook offers high threat of a test of the 50dma.. which will soon be around 2330.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Equities: an intra low of 2336, but then a rather typical latter day recovery, with a minor gain. There is huge overhead resistance within the 2380/90 zone. It seems very viable that the market could see another wave lower to test the rising 50dma, before a realistic opportunity to break/clear >2390.

VIX: The print of 13.16 was actually seen in pre-market. Stockcharts (and I guess most other charting software) now generally include pre-market, and the 15mins of AH price action, as part of each daily candle. In any case... the VIX is still reflective of a broadly confident capital market.

*for some extra charts/chatter later this evening, see https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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