Battling to bounce

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +4pts at 2348 (intra low 2336). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and -0.1% respectively. VIX settled +2.7% at 12.81. Near term outlook offers high threat of a test of the 50dma.. which will soon be around 2330.


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VIX'daily3

Summary

Equities: an intra low of 2336, but then a rather typical latter day recovery, with a minor gain. There is huge overhead resistance within the 2380/90 zone. It seems very viable that the market could see another wave lower to test the rising 50dma, before a realistic opportunity to break/clear >2390.

VIX: The print of 13.16 was actually seen in pre-market. Stockcharts (and I guess most other charting software) now generally include pre-market, and the 15mins of AH price action, as part of each daily candle. In any case... the VIX is still reflective of a broadly confident capital market.

*for some extra charts/chatter later this evening, see https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Go take a Valium

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, sp -29pts at 2344. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by a very significant -1.9% and -2.7% respectively. VIX settled +10.0% to 12.47. With the break <2350, near term outlook offers a test of the key 50dma, which will soon be in the 2330s.


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Summary

Today was admittedly something of a surprise, seeing the most dynamic downward action (for most indexes) since Sept'9th 2016. It was a fourth consecutive net daily decline for the sp'500, the most bearish run since late January, back when the sp' was battling against the 2300 threshold.

Cyclically, we're on the low end, and the equity bears are going to struggle to achieve any daily closes under the 50dma.. which is still rising, and will soon be in the sp'2330s.

Market volatility certainly picked up today, with the VIX seeing an opening classic hollow red reversal candle (hourly cycle, not shown).. and then quickly climbing. Despite sig' equity weakness, the VIX still couldn't see the low teens today, and it remains reflective of underlying capital market confidence.


Need a Valium?

Browsing around twitter and various blogs today, I am already starting to see borderline bearish hysteria. The top calling maniacs are at it again.

Lets be clear, the mid term bullish trends from the key lows in early 2016 remain FULLY intact. Nothing changes unless we're trading under the monthly 10MA - currently at sp'2216, although that number will naturally increase each month. For the moment, if you're feeling excited that the grand rally from 2009 is complete, I would suggest go take a Valium, or something. 

Goodnight from London
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Subdued price action

US equity indexes closed moderately weak, sp -4pts at 2373. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled -0.5%. VIX settled +0.5% at 11.34. Near term outlook offers another lurch upward... as the 2425/50 zone seems a given into April earnings.


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VIX'daily3

Summary

The week began on a pretty subdued note (don't I say that every week?), with the market seeing an afternoon swing from sp'2369 to 2376. The drama!

VIX remains naturally subdued.. still entirely unable to reach the 13s - last seen Jan'19th. Its notable we sure are seeing a great many black-fail daily candles, as any equity downside is usually reversed later in the day.
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Yours truly wants your support.

I'm trying something new, and want to see if I can capture some added attention via Twitter. I'm aiming to post 3-5 charts each day in the late evening.

First target is 250,000 hits within a month. That is not exactly bold, I know a few who catch millions.
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Goodnight from London
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