The Faber Avalanche

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -14pts at 2381. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.6% and -1.3% respectively. VIX settled notably lower, -5.8% at 11.81. Near term outlook offers renewed upside, as underlying price pressure remains powerfully strong.


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Summary

After the powerful Wednesday gains, it was not exactly a surprise to see a moderate retrace. Most notable though... the VIX was also net lower. Its pretty amazing to see the VIX unable to even briefly trade in the low teens. Its unquestionably a sign that the big/serious money has near zero concern of anything in the near term.
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As for the Avalanche

Dr Doom.. aka.. Mr Faber, has been doing the media circuit lately. He is once again proclaiming economic and equity market doom. Many of his reasons ARE valid... yet.. we ain't in Kansas (or should that be Thailand?) anymore.

Clown finance TV.. highlighting a few of Mr Faber's remarks

Along with many of the old school bearish/doomer crowd, Faber has been unable to adapt. Coming from yours truly of course, that is somewhat ironic, but hey, I have adapted to the new era.

Naturally, Faber hasn't publicly given any specifics... although he has alluded to another 50% collapse.

Does that seem possible to me?  Well yes, but only if we start from much higher up.. .say around sp'3K. On that thought...

Goodnight from London

Are you surprised?

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +32pts at 2395. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.8% and 1.9% respectively. VIX settled -2.9% at 12.54. Near term outlook offers a weekly close in the low 2400s, with the 2500s within range this May/June.


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Summary

Surprised, are you?

Yesterday's closing technical setup (short term) was on the low side. Even if this morning opened lower, the market would have seen some degree of latter day recovery.

Instead, the most bullish scenario occurred, with the sp'2400s and Dow 21000s.. levels that most thought insanely 'bold' just a few months ago.

Yet.. here we are..... with a super strong equity market... not just in the US.. but across much of the world.
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Ohh, and the following skies are most appropriate for those still trying to short this market...

I could say a lot more... but for now. .that will suffice.

Goodnight from London
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For those with an interest in the precious metals/miners...

see: http://permabeardoomster.blogspot.com/p/research-reports.html

The State of the Union

US equities ended the month on a slightly weak note, sp -6pts at 2363. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.6% and -1.4% respectively. VIX settled +6.9% at 12.92. Near term outlook is bullish, as another burst higher seems due before a realistic threat of a sustained move lower.


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Summary

It was a day of minor weakness for the US equity market, as reflected in the VIX which climbed for a second consecutive day. However, its notable that the VIX couldn't see the 13s at all in February... something we've not seen since June 2014.
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As for the SOTU

Tonight's address by President Trump is profoundly important. Its not just a speech to placate or inspire his party or even the broader congress/senate. It will be a speech where Trump will lay it all out.... to the world. The US economy is still struggling, and Trump's core aim will be to increase economic growth, whilst also launching a massive re-building scheme across the nation.

An infrastructure (phase'1) plan will likely total around $1trn. How will it be funded? I've long believed they could do it via a special 'US infrastructure 30/50yr bond'. Ironically, some of those would no doubt eventually find their way into the balance sheets of central banks across the world.
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The monthly close...

It was a very bullish month for the US and most other world equity markets...

 sp'monthly3c

A net monthly gain for the sp'500 of 84pts (3.7%), with a new historic high of 2371. Its been a full year since we saw a bearish red (Elder impulse) candle. I'll cover the US and other world equity markets in depth this coming weekend.
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It was another very mixed day for the Gold Miners. If you're curious to dig deeper, go pick up my first Gold Miner report.

For details: http://permabeardoomster.blogspot.com/p/research-reports.html

Goodnight from London