The sun has not set... yet

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +3pts at 2367. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.9% and u/c respectively. VIX settled -2.0% at 11.47. Near term outlook is for renewed upside of another 1-2%... as the US equity market remains super strong.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

The US market opened moderately lower, but sp'2352 - with VIX 12.59, was all the equity bears could manage. The daily close was actually pretty bullish, as the Dow managed to close net higher for an eleventh consecutive day.

The week as a whole was unquestionably bullish, with 5 of the 6 main indexes breaking new historic highs. Only the Transports was leaning weak.
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As for the sunset...

For London city, it was a sunny end to the week, and a pleasant improvement after yesterday's winter storm 'Doris'.

The same is true for the equity market.. the sun is still shining in equity bull land. Sure, a basic retrace of around 5% will be a threat from early March onward. However, energy is a serious threat to any such cooling, as the sector is overdue another push higher. Clearly, oil/nat' gas prices are going to be a key variable in that regard. Will the market start to price in 'summer driving season' soon? Is that going to be the excuse for a continued straight up rally across March, and much of April?

Goodnight from London
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*the weekend post will appear Saturday at 12pm EST, and will detail the US weekly indexes

Chronically low volatility

US equity indexes closed broadly mixed, sp +1pt at 2363 (intra high 2368). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.2% and -0.6% respectively. VIX settled -0.3% at 11.71. Near term outlook is bullish into early March, as the sp'2400s and Dow 21000s are well within range.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was another day for the equity bulls, as despite some notable weakness in the Trans and R2K, the Dow and sp'500 broke new historic highs. For now, there is still zero reason to expect any threat of a short term top until the latter half of next week.. aka... March!
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No teens this month

As things are, we've still not even seen the low teens this month. The last time that happened was June 2014.

VIX, monthly

For the moment, there is absolutely zero sign of the post election equity hyper-ramp maxing out. By default.. until the market stops going up, the VIX is going to remain extremely subdued.

Goodnight from London

Equity bears remain powerless

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -2pts at 2362. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.9% and -0.5% respectively. VIX settled +1.5% at 11.74. Near term outlook offers little to the equity bears, as the sp'2400s and Dow 21000s look due in early March.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was a pretty dull day in the market. The open was a little weak, but as has been the case for almost four months, the equity bears can't muster anything significant. The Dow did break another new historic high... settling fractionally higher for a ninth consecutive day.. equalling the run from last July.

VIX naturally remains very subdued in the sub-teens. Another foray to single digit VIX seems probable.

Goodnight from London