The sleepy equity market

US equity indexes closed moderately weak, sp -5pts @ 2265. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.8% and -0.6% respectively. VIX settled -1.6% @ 11.27. Near term outlook still threatens the sp'2243/31 zone.. as the daily price momentum cycles are set to turn bearish before the Christmas break.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was an especially sleepy day in equity land, with the sp' seeing a trading range just 6pts wide.

VIX opened with a flash print spiky low of 10.93 - the lowest level since Aug'2015. Despite some moderate equity weakness, the VIX still closed lower, for a fifth consecutive day - the worse run since mid October. A sporadic jump to the 12/13s is possible before the three day Christmas break. Certainly though, the key 20 threshold looks out of range for at least another month.
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My home market of the UK...

FTSE 100, monthly, 20yr

The FTSE is currently trading above multi-decade resistance of 7k. Any Dec', or Jan' close >7K would be exceptionally bullish, and bode for 8k by late spring. Things only turn bearish with another 1 or 2 months of repeated failures to break/hold 7K.
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Today was the winter solstice...

 ... the long march toward summer 2017 can begin :)  Thats bullish, right?

Goodnight from London

Another day for the equity bulls

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +8pts @ 2270. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.8% and 0.9% respectively. VIX settled -2.2% @ 11.45. Near term outlook still threatens a relatively small retrace to the 2243/31 zone. Broadly though, the market remains super strong.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was just another day for the equity bulls, as the Dow and Nasdaq comp' both broke new historic highs of 19987 and 5489 respectively.

Underlying price momentum remains net positive. Equity bears need to break the rising daily 10MA - currently @ 2258, just to offer any hope of a mini washout to the 2240/30s. Frankly, anything <2200 looks unlikely for a very considerable time.
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Strength: WTIC oil, weekly

A net daily gain of $0.24 (0.4%) to $53.30. Seen on the bigger weekly cycle, we're now seeing sustained price action above the key $50 thershold. Further mid term upside to at least $60 seems highly probable. Keep in mind, an inverse H/S formation - as also seen in many energy stocks, was suggestive of 70/75 by next summer. If that is the case, its difficult not to see the sp'2400/500s.

Goodnight from London

Santa will soon be here

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +4pts @ 2262. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.7% and 0.6% respectively. VIX settled -4.0% @ 11.71. A Christmas mini-washout to the low sp'2230s still seems viable, before the next big multi-week up wave into 2017.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was a very subdued day in market land, leaning moderately positive, as short term.. we've been a little oversold.

The daily equity MACD (blue bar histogram) will likely see a bearish cross late tomorrow/Wednesday, and that does offer a brief foray to the 2240/30s, before the next big surge into early 2017.

VIX remains especially subdued. At best, if sp'2230s, VIX 14/15s. The key 20 threshold looks out of range until late Jan/early Feb'... at the earlier.

Goodnight from London