Naturally cooling

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +0.9pts @ 2191. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and u/c respectively. VIX settled +0.4% @ 14.12. Near term outlook threatens further cooling to the sp'2160s - where the 50dma will be lurking. Broadly, the US market appears set for a year end close somewhere around 2230/40.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

With the jobs data coming in merely 'somewhat mediocre', the market was in moderate chop mode.. but still clearly leaning a little on the weaker side.

VIX remained broadly subdued, with one of those 'kooky flash prints' in early morning of 12.39, but settling in the low teens.

Right now, there is little reason to change the outlook. Further weakness to test the 50dma in the sp'2160s - with VIX 16/17s... next week, certainly by opex of Dec'16th.

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*the weekend post will appear Sat' 12pm EST, and will detail the World monthly indexes.

WTIC oil continues to soar

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -7pts @ 2191. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and -0.6% respectively. VIX settled +5.5% @ 14.07. Near term outlook threatens a test of the 50dma in the 2160s - which would likely equate to VIX 16/17s.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was another moderately mixed day in equity land, with the sp' settling moderately lower for a second consecutive day. There was notable weakness in the Nasdaq comp', which has now cooled almost 3% from the recent historic high of 5403.

VIX managed a second consecutive daily gain, already coming close to the 15s.

Note the equity and VIX MACD cycles... they are respectively set for a bearish and bullish cross at the Friday open.

At best.. a test of the 50dma in the sp'2160s.. with VIX 16/17s.

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Meanwhile... in crazy commodity land...

WTIC, monthly

It was a second consecutive day of powerful gains for WTIC oil, settling +$1.62 (3.3%) @ $51.06. 

My target of the $60 threshold doesn't seem so crazy now, does it? Anyone remember the inverse H/S - as particularly seen in many energy stocks, is suggestive of 70/75 next year? You can extrapolate and do the math.. to have a fair idea of where the market will be next year.

Goodnight from London

The sun sets on a very bullish month

US equities ended the month on a moderately mixed note, sp -5pts @ 2198 (intra high 2214). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.4% and -0.4% respectively. VIX settled +3.3% @ 13.33. Near term outlook offers a retrace of around 2% in early December, but broadly, the market remains powerfully strong.

London sunset, 10.20am EST.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

The OPEC news really helped negate what moderate weakness is out there in equity land.

Equity bulls managed to end the month with yet another pair of new historic highs, with sp'2214, and Dow 19225. Despite some distinct weakness in the late afternoon, such new highs are the ultimate in bullish signals.

VIX did manage a minor daily gain, settling in the 13s, but that is a long way down from the Nov'4th high of the 23s. It sure doesn't look like we'll see any action above the key 20 threshold in the near term.
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A powerful net monthly gain

sp'monthly1b

A net monthly gain of 72pts (3.4%), settling at 2198, having broken a new historic high of 2214.10.
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This weekend, I will detail the world monthly indexes. November was a bullish month not just for the US, but most other world markets. Broader price structure is highly suggestive of continued upside at least into late spring 2017, if not all the way into next autumn.

I recognise that some (perhaps many?) of you don't want to hear that kind of talk. You'd rather I talk about the imminent implosion of the USD, or some kind of deflationary collapse to the sp'400s. I'll merely continue to call it ... as I see it.

Goodnight from London