The sun sets on a very bullish month

US equities ended the month on a moderately mixed note, sp -5pts @ 2198 (intra high 2214). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.4% and -0.4% respectively. VIX settled +3.3% @ 13.33. Near term outlook offers a retrace of around 2% in early December, but broadly, the market remains powerfully strong.

London sunset, 10.20am EST.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

The OPEC news really helped negate what moderate weakness is out there in equity land.

Equity bulls managed to end the month with yet another pair of new historic highs, with sp'2214, and Dow 19225. Despite some distinct weakness in the late afternoon, such new highs are the ultimate in bullish signals.

VIX did manage a minor daily gain, settling in the 13s, but that is a long way down from the Nov'4th high of the 23s. It sure doesn't look like we'll see any action above the key 20 threshold in the near term.
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A powerful net monthly gain

sp'monthly1b

A net monthly gain of 72pts (3.4%), settling at 2198, having broken a new historic high of 2214.10.
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This weekend, I will detail the world monthly indexes. November was a bullish month not just for the US, but most other world markets. Broader price structure is highly suggestive of continued upside at least into late spring 2017, if not all the way into next autumn.

I recognise that some (perhaps many?) of you don't want to hear that kind of talk. You'd rather I talk about the imminent implosion of the USD, or some kind of deflationary collapse to the sp'400s. I'll merely continue to call it ... as I see it.

Goodnight from London

Can OPEC agree on something?

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +2pts @ 2204. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.2% and -0.1% respectively. VIX settled -1.9% @ 12.90. Near term outlook threatens downside of around 2%, but broadly, the market remains strong.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

A day of moderate chop. A touch of early weakness, then a rebound into the afternoon, but some distinct weakness in the closing hour.

VIX remains broadly subdued, the 14/15s remain viable tomorrow, with 16/17s viable Friday/early next week, if sp'2160/50s.

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Another OPEC meeting

WTIC oil, monthly

Oil had a rough day, net lower by -$1.85 (3.9%) @ $45.23. The market is clearly concerned that OPEC will meet, but will be entirely unable to agree on anything. I'm still mid/long term bullish oil - and the related energy stocks. That view is only re-considered with price action under the Aug' low of $39.19.

I remain broadly of the view that Mr Inflation is out there... lurking. I'd suggest anyone go stare at a 5 year chart for Copper... for at least an hour.

Goodnight from London

A little cooling

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -11pts @ 2201. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.9% and -1.3% respectively. VIX settled +6.6% @ 13.15. Near term outlook offers high probability of cooling to the 50dma in the sp'2160s in early December. Broadly though, the US market is unquestionably super strong.


spdaily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was not exactly the most exciting day to start the week.

It would seem sp'2213 was a short term high, and we're in the process of a retrace of at least 2%, that should see the sp'2160s, where the 50dma will be lurking in early December.

VIX is naturally starting to tick upward, but at best, even if sp'2160s, we'll likely see no higher than 16/17s. Even with the fed raising rates Dec'14th, its difficult to see VIX breaking above the key 20 threshold.
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The Bullish November

sp'monthly3c

Regardless of any further cooling across the next two days, November is set to close powerfully bullish, especially after a quartet of new index highs.

Goodnight from London