Got your Dow 20k hat yet?

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +1pt @ 2204. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.0% and 0.6% respectively. VIX settled +0.2% @ 12.43. Near term outlook offers further price chop for the half trading day of Friday, as the market remains super strong.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was just another day for the equity bulls, with new historic highs for the Dow (19083) and R2K (1342).

Market volatility remains naturally very subdued, with the VIX still stuck in the sub-teens. Even when the fed raise rates Dec'14th, that probably won't be enough to kick the VIX back above the key 20 threshold.

At best, a test of the 50dma... which in early December will be in the sp'2160s, and that might equate to VIX 16/17s.

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notable strength, Dow, monthly

The mighty Dow is currently net higher for the month by a monstrous 940pts (5.2%), having already pushed into the 19000s.

Like a stock that trades into the $90s... by default, an eventual move to at least test the next psy level of $100 would be highly probable. It is thus not a bold thing to say we'll at least see the Dow test 20k. Whether that is before year end, or not until early 2017... to quote one of the most crooked politicians of the early 21st century, 'what difference does it make?'.
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To my American readers (and most of you are)... Happy thanksgiving

Enjoy the day off from the twisted casino, and keep in mind, the Friday closing bell is at 1pm.

Goodnight from London
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*the next post will likely appear Friday @ 3pm EST.

Another set of new historic highs

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +4pts @ 2202. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.2% and 0.9% respectively. VIX settled -0.1% @ 12.41. Near term outlook offers a great deal of subdued chop across the remaining 1.5 trading days of this holiday week.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was just another day for the equity bulls, with the same quartet of indexes (sp, dow, r2K, nasdaq comp') pushing further into new territory.

VIX remains naturally subdued, stuck in the low/sub teens.

A very basic retrace would be to test the 50dma - soon in the sp'2150s, but that increasingly looks out of range, as there are now just 4.5 trading days left of the month. On balance, a test of the 50dma - in the 2160/70s - just ahead of the Dec'14th FOMC, seems probable, before resuming higher into year end.
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Update from a typically loud Mr C.

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Indeed, Dr Copper is something that merits attention.
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For those inclined, some macro chatter.. Mr Long with Rubino



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Goodnight from London

A quartet of new historic highs

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +16pts @ 2198. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by around 0.5%. VIX settled -3.3% @ 12.42. Near term outlook offers threat of a retrace to the 50dma in the sp'2150s, but broadly, the US market is unquestionably super strong.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

The week began on a moderately bullish note, but that was still more than enough to achieve no less than four new historic highs in the Dow, sp'500, R2K, and Nasdaq comp'. That just leaves the NYSE comp' and Transports, which will surely follow by early spring 2017.

VIX remains crushed, unable to even hold the 13s. The key 20 threshold looks out of range until at least mid December. It is highly arguable that a second fed rate rise (Dec'14th) is FULLY priced in. Assuming that is the case, its difficult to see VIX break >20 for the remainder of the year.

Sure, there will be equity retraces into year end - especially for the usual tax reasons, but broadly, the US market is unquestionably strong.
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Brief update on WTIC oil, monthly2

WTIC has swung from the $42s to the $48s. Broader upside to the upper bollinger around the $60 threshold remains a valid target for spring 2017. If that occurs, it'll really help kick the energy sector higher, and drag the main market with it.

Goodnight from London