Weakness ahead of Jackson Hole

US equity indexes closed moderately weak, sp -11pts @ 2175. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.1% and -0.9% respectively. VIX settled +8.6% @ 13.45 (intra high 14.01). Near term outlook offers Thursday chop.. ahead of Yellen on Friday. From there, the 2200s remain probable before end month.


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Summary

It was just another day of minor price chop... leaning on the moderately weak side.

VIX finally managed a close in the 13s, for the first time in 3 weeks. However, the key 20 threshold still looks out of range for at least another month.
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Talk of the 2300s continues

As I noted yesterday, mainstream talk is increasingly looking ahead to year end. Siegel is another who is seeking the sp'2300s by year end. Its obvious.. but still worthy of note... we're only talking about upside of 6-7%... which isn't exactly bold, considering we've four full months remaining of the year.

For me, unless we trade back under the breakout level of the 2130s in the somewhat tricky period of Sept/Oct, there is zero reason to expect any kind of autumnal/end year crash. I'll only put on my bearish hat if we're trading under the monthly 10MA, which in October will be around 2100.

Goodnight from London

The year end close

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +4pts @ 2186 (intra high 2193). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.4% and 0.7% respectively. VIX settled +0.9% @ 12.38. Near term outlook is for a lot of chop ahead of Yellen, due this Friday morning at Jackson Hole.


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Summary

*a notable new historic high of 5275 for the Nasdaq comp'. It remains the case that any monthly close in the 5300s should be enough to awaken the mainstream to begin chatter about when the 6000s will be seen.
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As for today... the market was certainly a little stronger than expected, with the sp/dow coming very close to breaking new highs. Clearly though, as Yellen is due this Friday morning, many traders are naturally unwilling to get involved.

VIX remains very subdued, still entirely unable to break and hold the low teens. The key 20 threshold looks out of range for at least another month.
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The year end close

During today's lunch time show, the cheerleaders on clown finance TV were again day-dreaming about where the market will settle the year.

There are increasingly a broad range of targets, with some expecting sustained weakness/volatility - largely due to the US election, with downside to around sp'2000. A few of the more bullish are seeking broader upside to the 2300s.

My guess? If we don't break <2130 during Sept/Oct, then another powerful blast higher will occur, with a year end close somewhere around 2300. If that is the case, then the 2400s in spring 2017 will be an easy target.

On that bullish note...

Goodnight from London

Holding pattern ahead of Yellen

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -1pt @ 2182. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and +0.2% respectively. VIX settled +8.2% @ 12.27 (intra high 13.02). Near term outlook offers very subdued price action ahead of the Yellen this Friday.


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VIX'daily3

Summary

A day of moderate swings.. as the market appears very content to stay in a holding pattern until the Yellen appears this Friday morning.

VIX remains broadly subdued, and is still notably unable to hold the 13s. The key 20 threshold looks out of range for at least another month.
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A successful games, and Super Abe

I'll end the night with a brief update on Brazil.

Brazil - like most other world markets, is battling hard to push upward. Any price action above the Sept' 2014 of 62304 would be very bullish. If you want to put on your inflationary hat, a move to 100k would be the natural long term target, having been stuck since the post crash bounce into 2010.

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For those who didn't see it.... the Tokyo 2020 tease from last night's closing ceremony. Even Abe himself made an appearance. The music around 4-7mins is by Yasutaka Nakata, whom is quite possibly a time travelling artist from the 23rd century. Truly... magical.





I loved almost everything about the games, which were a welcome respite from the usual news of death and injustice. For the economic and societal mess that is the nation of Brazil, it was a major achievement. They can at least be proud of that.

Goodnight from London