Another week for the bulls

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp -1.7pts @ 2184. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.5% and +0.1% respectively. VIX settled -1.1% @ 11.55. Near/mid term outlook remains broadly bullish, with the sp'2225/50 zone highly probable by mid/late September.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Little to add, on what was a day of very narrow price action, a range of sp'2186/2179.... 7pts (0.3%).

VIX was naturally cooling into the weekend

Broadly, having broken new historic highs for the sp'500, dow, and the Nasdaq comp', it was still another week for the equity bulls.

Goodnight from London

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*the next post will be Sat' 12pm, and will detail the US weekly indexes

WTIC oil is helping

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +10pts @ 2185 (new historic high 2188). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.6% and 0.5% respectively. VIX settled -3.1% @ 11.68. Near term outlook offers further strength to the sp'2190/2200s.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

A new historic high of sp'2188, with Dow 18638.

VIX remains naturally pinned sub-teens. The key 20 threshold looks out of range until (at least) after the Labor day holiday (Sept 5th).

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WTIC, weekly

A powerful net daily gain of $2.52 (6.0%) to $44.23, as oil is making a play to re-take the weekly 10MA in the $45s. It could be argued that price structure since June has merely been a giant bull flag, with last week's spike floor low in the $39s.

Any price action in the $46s will be decisive enough to give confidence that the psy' level of $50 will also be re-taken. Any closes >$50 will be an early sign of $60 by early spring 2017. For the equity bulls, higher energy prices are only going to help 'inspire' the main market far... far higher.

Goodnight from London

A touch of cooling

US equities closed moderately weak, sp -6pts @ 2175. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.4% and -0.7% respectively. VIX settled +3.3% @ 12.05. Near term outlook offers threatens the 2168/64 gap zone, before renewed upside to the 2190s, as broader price action remains outright bullish.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Very little to add, on what was another pretty subdued day.

The lower daily bollinger will be around 2160 in a few days.. and frankly, at best, equity bears might manage the gap zone of 2168/64 before resuming higher into the weekend. The sp'2200s remain due.. with 2225/50 in September.

VIX climbed for a third consecutive day... but is still only in the 12s. The key 20 threshold looks out of range until (at least) the latter half of September.
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Post BREXIT gains

UK, monthly

My home market of the UK continues to power upward. Any monthly close >7K would make for a hugely significant multi-decade breakout, and would bode for far higher levels into spring 2017. Of course, another failure would be hugely bearish, and its notable that the BoE's latest QE bond buying program has already run into problems as existing holders of mid/long duration GILTS are refusing to sell... at any price. Maybe the BoE should just start buying stocks instead?

Goodnight from London