Blue skies for the equity bulls

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +9pts @ 2173 (intra high 2175). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and +0.8% respectively. VIX settled -1.7% @ 11.77. Near term outlook still threatens a minor retrace to the breakout level of the 2130s, but broadly... the 2200s look an easy target for August.


sp'daily

VIX, monthly

Summary

Another day for the equity bulls, as the sp' breaks a new high of 2175, along with Dow 18622.

VIX remains utterly crushed, today's close of 11.77 was the lowest since 26th August 2014.
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Blue skies for the equity bulls

With another pair of historic index highs, the bulls have justification to be very confident for the rest of the summer. Regardless of the threat of a minor retrace to the breakout level of the sp'2130s, the 2200s look an easy target for August.

I realise some out there are still holding short, the obvious question is... why? The May 2015 high of sp'2134 was always the ultimate line in the sand. That has been decisively broken through, and today marks the eighth consecutive day above the old high.

Sure, we can't keep rising at the current post BREXIT rate (184pts, 9.2%, across 17 trading days) forever, but it should be clear, this is no market for the bears.

Goodnight from London

Quiet day in market land

US equities closed moderately weak, sp -3pts @ 2163. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.1% and -0.6% respectively. VIX settled -3.8% @ 11.97. Near term outlook threatens a retrace to the breakout zone of 2135/00. The 2100 threshold looks increasingly out of range.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

A fourth consecutive day of minor chop for US equities, arguably in consolidation mode, after the powerful run from the BREXIT low of sp'1991.

With Microsoft (MSFT) earnings coming in much better than expected, the VIX fell into the 11s in the brief 15 minutes of AH trading, which made for the lowest close since July 17th 2015.
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King Dollar remains... King

USD, weekly

Today's close in the DXY 97s was overlooked by many, but I sure noticed. The 97s open the door to further grind higher to the 98/99s.

A break above the 100 threshold would be massively significant, and as many recognise, would have all sorts of consequences, particularly for commodities.

Why is the USD rising? Mostly capital flows into the US, from almost every part of the world. A secondary issue is that much foreign debt is denominated in USD, and that underpins a strong USD bid.

Goodnight from London

Underlying upward pressure

US equities started the week on a moderately positive note, sp +5pts @ 2166. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and +0.2% respectively. The VIX settled -1.8% @ 12.44. Near term outlook threatens a minor retrace to the breakout zone of 2135/30, but broadly.. the 2200s look a given.


sp'daily

VIX'daily

Summary

Relative to the recent (and ongoing) geo-political/societal unrest, the US/world equity markets are holding up very well. The US market is leading the world on a new multi-month upswing.. and that looks set to continue across the summer.

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With just 9 trading days left of the month, the equity bulls are set to see most (if not all) US indexes close higher for a fifth consecutive month.

sp'monthly

With the break above the May 2015 high of 2134, we are very close to a bullish MACD cross, which would take us positive cycle for the first time since Jan'2015. As ever, the monthly close will be important.

Goodnight from London
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