Another day for the bears

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -3pts @ 2071 (intra high 2085). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by 0.1%. VIX cooled by -1.8% @ 20.14 (intra low 18.63). Near term outlook offers further bounce upside to the sp'2090/2100 zone, before renewed downside.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

A fifth consecutive net daily decline for the sp'500... the most bearish run since February.

Despite some late day weakness... further upside to the sp'2090s.. perhaps even the 2100 threshold looks viable into the quad-opex weekly close, before things get real interesting next week.

*I checked the weather forecast for next Thursday - the UK election day. Its currently set to be warm and sunny... and by definition, that does favour a higher turnout. Some could argue that favours a greater number of conservative 'remain' voters will make the effort to vote. However, underlying sentiment continues to lean toward a 'LEAVE' vote.

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An update on the bigger picture...

sp'weekly1b

We have a rather secure mid term cycle high of sp'2120. Equity bears can re-short with a very tight short-stop. The risk/reward into next week is exceptionally good, and I'll likely take at least one or two speculative positions, based on the notion that we'll at least test the sp'2025 low. If that fails to hold, things should spiral to 1950/20 within days.. if not hours.

Goodnight from London

A fourth day for the bears

Despite a closing hour rally, US equity indexes closed broadly lower for a fourth consecutive day, sp -3pts @ 2075 (intra low 2064). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.4% and -0.2% respectively. VIX cooled by -2.2% to 20.50. The FOMC offers a viable excuse for a brief and unsustainable bounce, with the sp'1900s probable by end month.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Another rather interesting day in market land, with a new cycle low of 2064 (with VIX 22.16) and a (not surprising) closing hour rally.

The Wed' FOMC will be a prime excuse for a Wednesday net gain, with further churn/upside across Thurs/Friday. With quad-opex this Friday, that further favours the bulls... after the recent cooling.

More broadly though... having broken a fair few initial supports, the outlook is increasingly bearish, as the bigger weekly cycles continue to turn toward the bears.

sp'weekly1b

A divergent lower MACD cycle high. At the current rate, we'll see a bearish MACD cross before end month, and in theory, that will offer first opportunity of some very powerful downside action, with VIX exploding into the 30/40s.

Of course, if the UK vote to remain... things will be rather different. The current polls increasing suggest we'll see a BREXIT.. which should rattle world capital markets.
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Goodnight from London

A third day for the bears

US equity indexes closed broadly lower for a third consecutive day, sp -17pts @ 2079. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled lower by around -1.1%. The VIX settled +23.1% @ 20.97. Near term outlook threatens a post FOMC (unsustainable) bounce to the gap zone of 2109/15, before far more dynamic downside to test the critical 2025 low.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Another day for the equity bears... with the sp'500 having decisively broken the double low of 2085. There is soft gap support in the 2078/76 zone.

It is highly notable that the VIX managed a fifth consecutive net daily gain, the best run since Aug'2015.

Considering that we have already seen VIX 20s - with only the sp'2070s. A test of the sp'2025 low would likely equate to VIX in 28/32 zone.
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Broader cycles continue to turn

sp'weekly6

A second blue candle... with a clear break of rising trend. We have a clear divergent lower MACD cycle high.. and we're set to see a bearish cross by end month. In theory, the most powerful downside will begin June 27-30th... with VIX 30s.. maybe 40s - if UK exit the EU... which now seems probable.

Things are getting interesting. 

Goodnight from London