Daily Wrap

US equities closed moderately lower, sp -6pts @ 2099 (intra low 2085). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.4% and -0.6% respectively. VIX settled -1.2% @ 13.47. Relative to the increasingly borderline-recessionary econ-data, the US market is holding together bizarrely well.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

A relatively narrow trading range in this short 4 day week, from a marginal new cycle high of sp'2105 to this morning's low of 2085, and settling effectively flat (for the week) at 2099.

VIX remains remarkably low, and there was even a 'rogue print' of 12.90 in the opening half hour of trading, although few seem to have noticed.

If the short term low of 2085 can be broken, that offers at least a test of 2025 within the next week or two. Things only get interesting on a break <2025, with subsequent support at the lower weekly/monthly bollingers in the 1950/20s.

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As for the weekly close...

sp'weekly1b

Effectively, a flat week, with a marginal new short term high of 2105. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) offers high threat of a divergent lower cycle high. As things are, best chance of a significant down wave looks viable in 2-3 weeks.

Goodnight from London

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*the weekend post will appear here (Sat' 12pm EST), and will detail the world monthly indexes.

Daily Wrap

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +5pts @ 2105 (intra low 2088). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and +0.6% respectively. VIX remains very subdued, -4.0% @ 13.63. Near term outlook offers a breakout of the ongoing relatively narrow price range.


sp'daily

VIX'daily

Summary

It was another day of moderate swings for the US equity market, the sixth day of a market stuck in a narrow range between the 2080s and the low 2100s.

VIX continues to reflect a market that is essentially fearless... much like June/July 2015, and Nov/Dec'.

A major questions remains, is the VIX going to stay subdued across June, or at least spike to test the key 20 threshold? Considering the looming BREXIT vote (June 23rd), it seems almost impossible that the US/world capital markets won't get at least a little twitchy as the month proceeds.
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The 'old leader' - Trans, monthly2

It remains notable that whilst the headline indexes - sp'500, dow, nasdaq', are all close to historic highs, the 'old leader' is still broadly struggling. The 8K threshold is strong resistance, and unless the bulls can break above that, the downward trend from Nov'2014 remains intact.

As for tomorrow... there is a wheel barrow of econ-data, and it won't likely be dull.

Goodnight from London

Daily Wrap

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +2pts @ 2099 (intra low 2085). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and +0.7% respectively. VIX cooled from earlier gains, +0.1% @ 14.20. Near term outlook offers weakness into the weekend, as OPEC, the ECB, and further econ-data will likely disappoint.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

So... morning weakness.. but a latter day recovery, with the day ending broadly flat. Not the most exciting of days.

VIX continues to reflect a market that has little concern of anything, least of all the dissolution of the EU, weak growth/earnings, or ongoing NIRP in the EU/Japan.

Considering an array of US/world econ-data that continues to come in borderline recessionary, it remains bizarre that many believe the Fed will raise rates - whether in June.. or July.

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WTIC oil, weekly

With the bi-annual OPEC meeting tomorrow, there is increased attention on oil. With Oil having broadly climbed from the $26s to briefly hit $50, there will be even less inclination for any of the OPEC members to agree on anything.

$50 oil is not sustainable, considering the ongoing over supply problem, and with global demand broadly flat. A post OPEC sell down looks probable, and that would help give equities an extra excuse to end the week on a particularly negative note.
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Goodnight from London