Daily Wrap

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +5pts @ 2105 (intra low 2088). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and +0.6% respectively. VIX remains very subdued, -4.0% @ 13.63. Near term outlook offers a breakout of the ongoing relatively narrow price range.


sp'daily

VIX'daily

Summary

It was another day of moderate swings for the US equity market, the sixth day of a market stuck in a narrow range between the 2080s and the low 2100s.

VIX continues to reflect a market that is essentially fearless... much like June/July 2015, and Nov/Dec'.

A major questions remains, is the VIX going to stay subdued across June, or at least spike to test the key 20 threshold? Considering the looming BREXIT vote (June 23rd), it seems almost impossible that the US/world capital markets won't get at least a little twitchy as the month proceeds.
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The 'old leader' - Trans, monthly2

It remains notable that whilst the headline indexes - sp'500, dow, nasdaq', are all close to historic highs, the 'old leader' is still broadly struggling. The 8K threshold is strong resistance, and unless the bulls can break above that, the downward trend from Nov'2014 remains intact.

As for tomorrow... there is a wheel barrow of econ-data, and it won't likely be dull.

Goodnight from London

Daily Wrap

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +2pts @ 2099 (intra low 2085). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and +0.7% respectively. VIX cooled from earlier gains, +0.1% @ 14.20. Near term outlook offers weakness into the weekend, as OPEC, the ECB, and further econ-data will likely disappoint.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

So... morning weakness.. but a latter day recovery, with the day ending broadly flat. Not the most exciting of days.

VIX continues to reflect a market that has little concern of anything, least of all the dissolution of the EU, weak growth/earnings, or ongoing NIRP in the EU/Japan.

Considering an array of US/world econ-data that continues to come in borderline recessionary, it remains bizarre that many believe the Fed will raise rates - whether in June.. or July.

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WTIC oil, weekly

With the bi-annual OPEC meeting tomorrow, there is increased attention on oil. With Oil having broadly climbed from the $26s to briefly hit $50, there will be even less inclination for any of the OPEC members to agree on anything.

$50 oil is not sustainable, considering the ongoing over supply problem, and with global demand broadly flat. A post OPEC sell down looks probable, and that would help give equities an extra excuse to end the week on a particularly negative note.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Wrap

US equity futures closed moderately mixed, sp -2pts @ 2096 (intra high 2103). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by around 0.3%. VIX saw a net daily gain of 8.2% @ 14.19 (intra high 15.00). Near term outlook offers some initial cooling to the sp'2070/60s.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

 .. and another month comes to a close.

The closing hour mini ramp was somewhat typical, as there were a number of the usual 'end month' issues.

Despite a gain of 8%, relative to an array of threats in June, the VIX remains at bizarrely low levels. Based on recent price levels, just to reach the key 20 threshold, will require the sp'500 to break the recent low of 2025, and then break the 200dma (2010).

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As for the monthly close...

sp'monthly

The third consecutive net monthly gain, +31pts (1.5%) @ 2096.

Equity bears need to take out the recent low of 2025 to cause some provisional trouble in June. A realistic target for June are the lower weekly/monthly bollingers... in the 1950/25 zone. For any continued hope of taking out the 1810 low, the bears should be seeking a June close <1950.

On the flip side, if the UK populace vote to 'stay', and if the Fed can continue to tread a fine line, then a breakout >2134 is viable. If that occurs, it negates ANY bearish outlook for the rest of 2016.

Best guess... a third failure for the bull maniacs to break 'up and away', with the mid/low sp'1900s by late June.
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Fed/econ chatter from the Schiff



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Goodnight from London