3pm update - battling into the close

US equities break a new intra low of sp'2045, although it remains notable that VIX has still not broken above the Friday high of 17.09.. so far only hitting 16.85. The divergence threatens another equity bounce before a more viable break into the 2020s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

The sp'2040 threshold is unquestionably a pretty important level.

Considering the complete lack of any VIX spike/capituation high.. there still seems another viable push lower in equities across the next 2-3 days.

Any move into the 2020s should bode for 2000/1990s before the next major multi-day bounce - which would likely be to 2050/60 in mid May.

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notable weakness... miners, GDX, daily

Provisional trend break.. but I'd argue short metals/miners would be one of the worse possible trades right now.

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back at the close

2pm update - bearish summer sunshine

US equities remain broadly weak, and look set for a second consecutive net daily decline in the sp'2040s. A key break of the two soft lows of 2039/33 looks increasingly probable before the weekend, along with VIX 18/19s. Oil is not helping market mood, -0.6% in the $43s.


sp'weekly1b

Summary

*note the spike on this weeks candle.. lower high... lower low, with a break under the 10MA. Arguably, the 20wma around 2K is a valid target for the more aggressive bears.
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Suffice to add... if 2111 is a key mid term high... the next wave will go well below the 1810 low this summer.
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notable weakness... TSLA, daily

TSLA - like the main market, has been having increasing problems across the last few weeks.. and its really looking ugly into earnings... due at today's close.

Natural support $200/195, then the 150/140 zone.. with the Feb' low of $141s.

Great product... but they just aren't making a profit.

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Here in London city... its rather glorious...

The first proper early summers day in the metropolis... only the 60s.. but hey.. thats okay. Naturally, yours truly is already counting down the weeks until this summer cycle ends... t-18 weeks (or so)

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back at 3pm

1pm update - seeking the 2020s

US equities remain broadly weak, and look set for a second consecutive day of declines. The sp'2040 threshold - where the 50dma is lurking looks an easy target. However, considering the VIX still hasn't shown any upside power yet.. the 2020s now look a valid target by the weekend.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

A lot of chop... but we're still leaning weak.

Clearly.. we're yet to see any powerful downside.. in theory... another 2-3 days lower looks probable.

Maybe I'm just getting overly bold, but the 2020s look probable in the current multi-day down wave. If that is seen.. then it'll likely keep on cooling to the 2000/1990s... which would make for a very natural short term floor.

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notable weakness, miners, GDX, daily

A third consecutive day lower.. but still holding the broader upward trend.
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time for some sun.... back 2pm