12pm update - borderline interesting

US equities remain weak, but still... equity bears can't justifiably get even initially excited until a break under the two soft lows of sp'2039/33... with a close in the 2020s. For now, the market remains relatively close to the recent key high of 2111.. with a VIX that is yet to show any real upside power.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Not much to add.

Next support is around 2040.. with two soft lows of 2039/33 as next line of defence.

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notable weakness/reversal... Oil... USO, daily

In theory.. the $10.00 threshold is a valid target in the near term.. and that is a clear 7% lower.
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Metals are struggling.. as the USD is slowly clawing upward in the DXY 93s... the related mining stocks are under strong pressure... with the ETF of GDX -4% or so. More on the metals/miners later....
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time to see what the cheerleaders are saying on clown finance TV....

11am update - the spirit of the bull maniacs

US equities remain moderately lower, and despite ongoing weakness, it remains the case that the bull maniacs remain extremely confident.. with a fair few touting broad upside across the rest of the year. For the moment... nothing has changed since the key historic high of 2134 in May 2015.


sp'daily5

USO' daily2

Summary

*EIA report: net surplus of 2.8 million barrels.

USO saw a clear break of rising trend yesterday.. and in theory.. $10.00 is a valid target... and that is another 9% lower... which if correct... sure won't help US equities.

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notable weakness... BA, daily

Another one of the key stocks I am following.. which have seen a key break of rising trend. Clearly, its going to take a sig' market upset just to drag BA back to the Feb' low of $102.10.

10am update - breaking lower

US equities continue to slide, with the sp'500 breaking the Friday low. Next support is around 2040 - where the 50dma is lurking. For the moment, VIX remains broadly subdued, +4% in the 16s. Oil is +2.5%, ahead of the latest EIA report.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

re: VIX.. yes its still pretty subdued.. and is still not showing any real upside power.

The opening black-fail hourly candle is not exactly inspiring.

To counter that, underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is set for a bullish cross in the 10am hour.. and that would offer the sp'2030s today.
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So.. opening declines... somewhat interesting, but there are multiple aspects of support from 2040, 39, 33.

Equity bears should be battling for the 2020s, which would offer some initial clarity that 2111 is a key mid term high.

Best bear case is a 38% fib retrace of the 1810-2111 wave... which would give the 1990s.. before next sig' bounce into 3rd week of May.

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notable weakness, BAC, daily

As economic weakness bodes for no rate increase at the June 15th FOMC, BAC is struggling - along all other financials. Rising trend currently matches where the 50dma is, so a break <$13.70 would be significantly bearish.

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stay tuned!


10.01am.. Factory orders:  1.1%... above expect'

ISM service sector: 55.7... above expect'
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10.04am.. VIX sure is twitchy... gaps down at 10.00 precisely.... almost filling the opening gap higher...

Need to see >16.60 to confirm underlying market weakness


10.10am.. Eyes on the VIX... if it finally starts to show some upside power.. then equities headed sig' lower... to break the 2039/33 lows.


10.31am.. EIA report: net weekly 2.8 million barrel surplus.

Oil looks highly vulneralbe... target is USO.. $10.00...  and that would be equiv' to WTIC -10% from current levels.