Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately lower, sp -11pts, we're set to open at 2052 - back to last Friday's low. USD is +0.1% in the DXY 93.00s. Metals are cooling, Gold -$7, with Silver -1.0%. Oil is +0.7% in the $43s, ahead of the latest EIA report.


sp'60min

Summary

So, overnight we've taken out the Friday low... which is useful. Next stop should be the 50dma around sp'2040/38... with VIX 18s.

Things only get interesting on a break of the two soft lows of 2039/33.. with a daily close in the 2020s. Until then, I can't have any initial confidence that 2111 is a key mid term high.

Best case for the bears in the current cycle is a 38% fib retrace (of the 1810-2111 wave) giving the sp'1990s. Any subsequent bounce would be at least 3%.

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Update from Mr C.


 
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Gold/Market chatter - Hunter with Pento



I sure don't agree with Pento's dollar doom outlook, but there are some other interesting comments worth consideration.
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Overnight action

Japan: CLOSED
China: -0.1% @ 2991
Germany: currently -0.7% @ 9853
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Have a good Wednesday
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8.16am.. ADP jobs: 156k, way below consensus... a major fail for the econ-bulls

sp-12pts... 2051.

The King of FIAT land is still King

It was a rather interesting day in currency land, with the USD swinging from an early low of DXY 91.88, but settling +0.3% @ DXY 92.93. Broadly, the USD remains stuck in a broad 9% range from the giant 100 threshold to the 91s.


USD, daily

USD, monthly

Summary

The US and world capital markets have seen some truly insane crazy times since 2006.

I remember the Schiff touting dollar doom in 2006/07.. for some very valid reasons (the widening trade deficit being a primary one).

For a brief while it seemed like he might be right about the USD - as he was about the US housing market and equities, yet the USD floored in April 2008 @ DXY 71.33.

As world capital markets became deeply distressed into autumn 2008, the USD soared, and despite a few periodic cool downs (late 2009, early 2011) the USD is not remotely looking weak.


Far from imploding, the USD remains King of FIAT land.

No doubt, a few of you out there will disagree... and I'd merely reflect back 'so.. you think the Euro, Yen, British Pound, or Yuan are going to appreciate long term vs the USD?'

My long term outlook for the USD remains entirely unchanged, seeking a monthly close back above the DXY 100 threshold, and from there.... onward to the 120s.
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Update on the German DAX, monthly

The loss of the 10K threshold should make the bull maniacs at least a little twitchy. Things don't get interesting until rising support in the 8900s is decisively broken under.


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Looking ahead

Wed' will see a wheel barrow of data: ADP jobs, intl' trade, prod'/costs, PMI/ISM serv' sector, factory orders, and the latest EIA report.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -18pts @ 2063 (intra low 2054). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.2% and -1.7% respectively. Near term outlook offers sp'2040/38 - where the 50dma is lurking. A daily close under the two soft lows of 2039/33, in the 2020s will not be easy.


sp'daily5

Dow

Summary

Suffice to add... the Friday gains were broadly negated by today's declines.

sp'500: next support, 50dma.. around 2040/38. Any daily close in the 2020s will open up a brief foray to the 1990s.. before next sig' bounce.

Dow: 17k remains the key support threshold, and that should comfortably hold in the current down cycle from 18167.

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a little more later...