Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately lower, sp -11pts, we're set to open at 2084. USD is -0.6% in the DXY 93.80s. Metals are on the rise, Gold +$11, with Silver +0.9%. Oil is +0.1% in the $45s.


sp'60min

Summary

So.. the BoJ upset the cart overnight by not spinning the PRINT machine any faster. It seems they want to wait until after the G7 in late May.

As for US equities, it looks like the big bear flag will play out. First downside target remains the 2065/61 gap zone by the Friday/monthly close.

Things really only get interesting on a break under the two soft lows of 2039/33. Frankly, that seems out of range until late next week at the earliest.


early movers...

FB +10%... on earnings hysteria
INFN -16%... earnings ?

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Overnight action...

Japan: strong downside,  -624pts (3.6%) @ 16666

* the following chart does not include last nights decline, but its useful to see...

So, with one trading day left of the month, the Nikkei is now fractionally lower for the month... and remains within a clear downward trend from last summer.

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China: latter day recovery, -0.3% @ 2945
Germany: currently -1.2% @ 10175

Have a good Thursday
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8.35am.. GDP: 0.5% growth... a little below consensus.... some could justifiably argue the number will get revised fractionally negative in May/June.

sp -13pts... 2082.
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8.43am... re: AMZN. The chart (will highlight later) for the past year ain't so pretty. Earnings are due at the Thurs' close... and are worth keeping an eye on.

The setup looks more vulnerable than AAPL, so I'd imagine it'll implode.... but anyone writing naked calls... or puts will be at extreme risk.

The April candle

With just two trading days left of April, those with eyes on the bigger picture should be particularly interested in how the US - and other world markets, trade into the weekend/monthly close. As things are, equity bears should be desperate for the sp'2060s with VIX 15/16s.


sp'monthly1b

Nasdaq comp', monthly

Summary

sp'500: a net monthly gain (>2059) now looks highly probable... which will make for another close above the important 10MA.

Nasdaq: currently fractionally lower for the month, and a net April decline does look probable.


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Looking ahead

Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs, but far more important...

Q1 GDP. Market is expecting q/q growth of 0.7%. However, there are a fair few seeking less.. even a fractionally negative print.

Equity bulls should be somewhat concerned, not least as earnings across most sectors are not exactly inspiring. On the flip side, bears face the fact that the US remains the world's leading economy, and that is where a great of capital continues to flood into.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +3pts @ 2095 (intra low 2082). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.1% and 0.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers downside to the 2065/61 zone before the weekend. Anything in the 2050/40s now looks out of range until next week/May.


sp'daily5

Nasdaq comp'

Summary

sp'500: a minor gain, but notably coming within a mere 0.5% of the recent 2111 high. Near term downside to the 2060s looks viable into the weekly/monthly close. Sub 2040 looks difficult next week, as the soft lows of 2039/33 will offer a lot of support.

If 2111 was a key high.. even a basic 38% fib' retrace would take the sp' to the 1990s, and that would likely take at least 5-7 trading days to achieve.

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Nasdaq: weighed down by AAPL, settling -0.5%.. just a touch above the 200dma (4848). Further downside to the 4700s looks probable.

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a little more later..