Pre-Market Brief

US equity futures are moderately higher, sp +12pts, we're set to open at 2073, a mere 2pts below the recent key high. USD is +0.7% in the DXY 94.60s. Metals are under pressure, Gold -$15, with Silver -1.0. Oil is -1.2%, ahead of the latest EIA report.


sp'60min

Summary

*awaiting some key econ-data, notably retail sales.
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With overnight sig' strength in Asia and Europe, its not surprising to see another push higher for US futures.

Clearly, we're now on the edge of a major breakout, having been broadly stuck for a few weeks.

As of the open, the sp'500 will be a mere 3% from the May 2015 high.

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early movers...

BAC +2.1%... Mr Market expecting rate hikes?
FCX +1.8%.. as fears of bankruptcy continue to lessen

GDX -2.7%, as metals cool
RIG, SDRL, both lower by around -2.0%
TVIX -5% in the $4.30s, as VIX set for the 13s.

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Overnight action

Japan: +2.8% @ 16381
China: +1.4% @ 3066
Germany; currently +2.3% @ 9986
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Farewell to Peabody

Peabody Energy (BTU) has finally filed for bankruptcy, that leaves just Consol (CNX) as the last of the notable listed coal miners.

No doubt some will find a way to spin this as bullish for the sector and broader US/world economy.
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Oil causing trouble for the equity bears

The net daily gain in WTIC oil of $1.76 (4.2%) to $43.50, was unquestionably a primary motivator for today's mid morning rebound. Indeed.. it only took the algo-bots around 2mins to swing most indexes 0.5% to the upside. A core issue in the months ahead is where will oil broadly trend.


WTIC, weekly2

WTIC, monthly2

Summary

Most notable, the move into the $43s, has resulted in a clear break above the monthly 10MA. Equity/oil bears should be desperate for an April close <$41.

Today's rumour/chatter that Russia and the House of Saud have provisionally agreed to freeze oil production is just that...........a totally unsubstanciated/unconfirmed headline-rumour.

Ironically, even if correct, what about all the other producers across the world, including the USA? For global energy prices to stop broadly falling, output needs to be CUT... not just frozen.

For the moment, the Feb' low of $26.05 still looks like it will eventually be broken under.


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Macro-econ chatter, Mr Long with Mr Smith.



For those with an interest in the grander financial/societal issues, this is required viewing.


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Looking ahead

Wednesday is pretty packed.. with retail sales, PPI, business invent', the latest EIA report, and the Fed Beige book (due 2pm).
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed broadly higher, sp +19pts @ 2061 (intra low 2039). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.8% and 1.0% respectively. Near term outlook is extremely borderline, as there is threat of a break above the key high of 2075. Best case near term downside is the 2025/15 zone.


sp'daily5

Nasdaq comp'

Summary

sp'500: broadly stuck within the 2075/20s. Price structure could be argued is a giant bull flag, although I would call it a choppy top.

Nasdaq: still stuck below the key 4900 threshold.

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a little more later...