Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures (ahead of the jobs data) are moderately lower, sp -7pts, we're set to open at 2052. USD remains weak, -0.1% in the DXY 94.40s. Oil is -1.5% in the $37s on Saudi chatter about 'no oil deal unless Iran also freezes'.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*awaiting the jobs data at 8.30am
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The technical setup favours the equity bears today. Hourly charts offer sp'2040/35, with VIX 15s. Clearly, that is nothing particularly exciting, but its better than trading >2081.

The market is due a retrace, and today would make for a valid excuse, regardless of what the actual jobs number might turn out to be.
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notable early mover: TSLA +6% @ $245.. as a new model is released.

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Final update from Mr C.



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Now here is a product I can issue a BUY recommendation on...



Bullish water. HBW is listed on the .GoT exchange in Iceland.
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Overnight action

Japan: -3.5% @ 16164
China: latter day recovery (PBOC ?), +0.2% @ 3009
Germany: currently -2.0% @ 9766.... the 10K threshold is starting to fade away.


Have a good Friday.
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8.31am.  Net jobs gains: 215k,   headline rate: 5.0%.

sp  -5pts... 2053

Overall, the number could be considered 'goldilocks'... but the market chatter will likely increase about a rate hike... and that will be a downward pressure on equities.. at least in the short term.


8.52am.. sp -10pts.... 2049.

notable weakness... Gold -$12....    miners.. GDX -2.1%.

Hmm.... bearish start to the month :)


9.05am... sp -13pts... 2046... .  oh noes.....  is it time for QE4 yet?

Bits and pieces to wrap up March

It was a powerfully bullish month for US equities, with the sp'500 +127pts (6.6%) @ 2059, whilst the Transports gained 8.2% to 7944. WTIC Oil +$4.44 (13.1%) @ $38.34. Copper +2.5% @ $2.18. The USD settled -3.7% @ DXY 94.61.


sp'monthly1b

Trans, monthly2

WTIC Oil, monthly'2

Copper, monthly'2

USD, monthly

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Looking ahead

Friday will see a wheel barrow of econ-data...

Monthly jobs - market is expecting net job gains of 210k, with a headline jobless rate of 4.9%. That does not seem overly optimistic. The real issue will not be the actual number, but how the market interprets the data. Considering current market sentiment, any 'better than expected' number might be the excuse for equity downside on the notion that another rate hike will be brought forward.

other data: PMI/ISM manu', consumer sent', construction spending.

*since it will be April 1st, beware of ALL stories !
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed into the March/Q1 close, sp -4pts @ 2059 (intra high 2067). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and +0.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers a retrace, at least to the sp'2000/1990 zone.


sp'daily5

Nasdaq comp'

R2K

Summary

sp'500: micro chop.. but leaning a touch weak. It is notable that the 200dma is at 2016, with the lower bollinger set to lurk in the 1990/2000 zone across first half of April.

Nasdaq': stuck under the key 4900 threshold.

R2K: a fractional new cycle high, and still a clear 2% from the 200dma of 1141.
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a little more later.. to wrap up the month.