12pm update - grey skies to end the week

US equities remain moderately weak, sp -9pts @ 2026. Cyclically, we're still due a bounce, but with each passing hour, the recent high of 2056 is more likely a key mid term high. VIX remains 'relatively' subdued, +4% in the 15s. The key 20 threshold looks viable next week.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

*note the upper daily bollinger for the VIX, across next week, that will be around the key 20 threshold.
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So.. we're still weak, and with a 3 day holiday ahead, price action will be increasingly subdued this afternoon.

Q. How spooked will the cheerleaders on clown finance TV be, with a third consecutive net daily decline?

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Here in London city

Bear market remains under construction

Not an inspiring way to lead into 'Good Friday', rainy, and zero sunshine.

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time for lunch :)

11am update - cyclically set to bounce

US equities remain moderately weak, but the smaller hourly cycle is on the very low side, and we're set to recover (if choppy) into the weekly close, and probably across Monday/early Tuesday. What is now rather exciting is if the next up cycle merely puts in a marginally lower high <2056.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*again, note the opening black-fail candle in the VIX. Considering the holiday, and the hourly MACD cycle, we're set to see the VIX cool back to the 14s.
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Suffice to add.. its been a somewhat interesting few days. Now its a case of where we close the month. The monthly 10MA stands at 2016, and I'd prefer a close under that.

Even if we're 2040s next Tuesday lunch time (when the Yellen will appear), it won't take much to get to 2015/2005 by the Thursday/March close.

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time to shop...back soon

10am update - opening weakness

US equity indexes open broadly lower, with the sp' having now cooled from 2056 to the 2020s. The bigger daily/weekly cycles are looking maxed out. Metals are somewhat struggling, Gold +$1, with Silver +0.3%. Oil remains under increasing pressure, -3% in the mid $38s.


sp'weekly1b

VIX'60min

Summary

*note the VIX hourly candle.... a black-fail...  considering we have a 3 day break ahead... its a probable opening exhaustion high. Equity bears... beware.
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PMI serv' sector: 51.0 (prev' 49.8), arguably 'okay', but neither is it anything for the econ' bulls to get excited about.
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Even if there is a latter day recovery, its still looking like we'll get our first net weekly decline in six weeks.

Any bounce next Mon/Tuesday will likely result in a marginally lower high <2056.... one to short into.

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notable weakness... FCX, daily

Again, its a case where any moderately lower open in the broader market leads to the 'junk' getting smashed.