Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately lower, sp -9pts, we're set to open at 2027. USD is +0.2% in the DXY 96.20s. Metals are bouncing, Gold +$1, with Silver +0.5%. Oil is -1.8% in the $39s.


sp'60min

Summary

With further weakness, we'll break rising trend on the sp' hourly chart... and that does greatly increase the probability that 2056 was a key mid term high.

In any case... a long weekend is almost here.

*I see a post from Armstrong that the NYSE 'closes early Friday at 1pm.    That is incorrect.  The US and almost all markets are closed tomorrow for 'Good Friday'.

Further, most of the EU markets are closed on Monday too, but US will be open.
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Cyclically, we're on the very low side of the MACD cycle, and will still be due for a bounce into this afternoon, and early next week.

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Update from Mr C.




Failed head test?  Certainly sp'2056 is within the zone where such a formation would be expected to max out.

sp'weekly8e - H/S

... and that is indeed effectively what Mr C' is suggesting. A simple extrapolation would give sp'1600 or so within 2 months or so.
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Overnight action

Japan: -0.6% @ 16892
China: very weak into the close, -1.6% @ 2960
Germany: currently -1.4% @ 9885

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Have a good Thursday
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8.52am.. Durable goods orders, m/m, -2.8%...  not good at all.

sp -12pts. 2024.

Oil -2.8%... the $38s are looming, and that really makes the 43s difficult next week.

WTIC oil - unable to hold $40

Most notable today, price action in WTIC oil, which battled hard to hold the $40 threshold, but fell apart in the afternoon, settling -$1.43 (3.5%) at $39.79. On any fair outlook, Oil is close to a key mid term top, and looks set for renewed broad downside into the summer, as the over-supply issue remains entirely unresolved.


WTIC, weekly2

WTIC, daily

Summary

Note the current green candle on the weekly cycle, still indicative of broader upside. Weekly upper' bol is in the $44s...  but will cool to the $43s next week.

The daily cycle offers clear resistance at the 200dma in the mid $42s

Regardless of near term price action, the bigger issue is one of over-supply. That has not in any way been resolved.. and thus I am seeking new multi-year lows in the months ahead.

I'd argue its not whether we'll see WTIC Oil in the teens, but for how many days, weeks.. or even months, will it trade there?

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As for equities...

sp'weekly6

The equity bears can start getting mildly excited once we see the first blue candle. As was the case from Nov-Dec', before <1810, price action will likely see a fair few swings (across 3-5 weeks) before a break of the Feb'11 low of 1810.

In any case, first downside target (via daily charts) is the 50dma/lower daily bollinger. In early April, that will be in the sp'1950/60s.
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Looking ahead

Thursday will see the weekly jobs, and Durable goods orders.

With Friday CLOSED, expect increasingly minor chop into the late afternoon, and such light action generally favours the equity bulls.

*Fed official Bullard will be speaking, and Mr Market will be listening, as chatter of a 'Yellen revolt' increases.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -13pts @ 2036. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.7% and -2.0% respectively. Considering the 3 day holiday weekend ahead, and the smaller hourly MACD cycle, there is significant threat of renewed upside into early next week.


sp'daily5

NYSE comp'

R2K

Summary

sp'500 - break of rising trend... a viable key top of 2056. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle set to turn negative no later than next Mon/Tuesday.

NYSE comp' - stuck at the 200dma....highly representative of the main market, which still looks set for renewed broad downside into the summer.

R2K, maxed out from 1103.. just a trio of points above the key 1100 threshold.... with a very sig' daily decline of around -2.0%.

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a little more later...