Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately higher, sp +4pts, we're set to open at 2044. USD is +0.2% in the DXY 94.90s. Metals are cooling, Gold -$5. Oil is +1.5% in the $42s, with next resistance of $45.


sp'60min

WTIC oil, weekly2

Summary

*The sp'500 is set for the fifth consecutive net weekly gain. Whilst the Transports - 'old leader', is set for the ninth weekly gain, the best run since March-May 2009
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As for today, it'd seem we'll break new highs, with sp' 2050s, and R2K 1100s. VIX looks set to remain subdued, and will probably settle in the 13s.

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Update from Oscar



It is interesting to see that Mr C is still warning about the viable 'failed head test' of what is a large H/S formation for most equity indexes. Technically, so long as we don't go above the Nov'2015 high of 2116, the bearish formation is intact.
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Overnight action

Japan: broadly weak, -1.2% @ 16724
China: solid gains, +1.7% @ 2955.
Germany: currently +0.3% @ 9921.
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What am I doing today?

Well, not only am I now seeking R2K 1100s, but I'd prefer to get involved once Oil is in the $44/45s. Clearly, the latter is out of range today, so I'm still in waiting mode. Call it overly cautious if you like, but the higher we go, the safer the next short trade shall be.

Have a good Friday

USD continues to cool

With the Fed indicating there will only be two.. if not just one interest rate rise this year, the king of FIAT land - the USD, fell for a second day, settling -1.2% @ DXY 94.81. Near term outlook threatens the 90 threshold, before resumed upside. The 120s look highly probable.. eventually.


USD, weekly

USD, monthly

Summary

Suffice to add... USD has been tainted by the Fed (whether intentionally or not), and is currently under a great deal of downward pressure as hopes of a series of rate hikes have faded.

Broadly, the Euro and Yen look 'toast', and I find it impossible to believe that the USD won't eventually break back above the DXY 100 threshold, and onward to the 120s.
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Market/econ chatter from Schiff



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Looking ahead

Friday will see consumer sentiment data.

It will be quad-opex, so expect increasingly choppy, and dynamic price action in the late afternoon.

*there are 3 fed officials on the loose. Most notable, the bane of the equity bears - Bullard, due to speak at 3pm.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed broadly higher for a second consecutive day, sp +13pts @ 2040. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 3.0% and 1.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers the R2K at the 1100 threshold, which will likely equate to sp'2050 before next chance of a reversal.


sp'daily5

Dow

R2K

Summary

*price structure in the second market leader - R2K, is a pretty bull flag, and was confirmed today, which bodes for a move to the 1100 threshold tomorrow morning.

A very valid question is whether the R2K is going to be able to make it to its 200dma in the 1150s. If that is the case, it'd bode for sp'2070/80s.

As ever, what will especially matter is the monthly close, not just for equities, but also Oil. Those equity bears seeking broader downside into the spring/summer, should arguably be seeking a March close back under sp'2K, with Oil <$38.

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a little more later...