11am update - micro chop

US equities remain moderately mixed, stuck in micro chop mode, as some sellers are understandably appearing as indexes are close to their respective 200dmas. VIX remains relatively subdued, +3% in the mid 17s. Metals are battling to hold moderate gains, Gold +$6.


sp'weekly1b

Summary

Not the underlying MACD (blue bar histogram)... positive cycle for the first time since late December.

Equity bears really need to halt that increase by late next week.


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notable weakness, CREE, daily

... downgraded by some barely heard of group. If sp'1600s, CREE will hit $20.. if not the mid teens.
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10am update - opening weakness

US equities open moderately lower, but once again, the equity bears appear powerless, with high threat of renewed upside for an initial attempt to clear the 200dma @ sp'2022. VIX opens higher, but the opening black-fail candle should not inspire those seeking downside ahead of the ECB this Thursday.


sp'daily

VIX'60min

Summary

So.. a little lower, but it should be clear to most there really isn't any downside power.. and considering the bigger weekly cycles (a bullish MACD cross has occurred)... the bulls are increasingly in control.

The next 8-10 trading days will be critical. Equity bears must hold the line at the 2020/40 zone...  with renewed cooling into end month.

If March closes strong.. then any talk of broader downside will cease.

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notable weakness: SDRL, daily

Not surprisingly, last Friday's bullish hysteria is starting to fade. Target: $0.00

Pre-Market Brief

US equity futures are moderately lower,  sp -10pts, we're set to open at 1989. USD is +0.3% in the DXY 95.50s. Metals remain strong, Gold +$10, with Silver +1.8%. Oil is +0.4% in the $36s.


sp'60min

Summary

By the the close of today, rising support will be 1990, so.. the bulls need a close above that.

Another push to the 200dma looks likely... and that will be around 2022 across this week.

Regardless of today though, what next matters is whether the ECB/Draghi can placate the market enough this Thursday.

Clearly, having ramped from sp'1810 to 2009, the market will be looking for an excuse for at least a minor retrace.
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early movers...

CNX +10%, unsustainable recent gains
SDRL -9%, the wild action continues
GDX +2.2%... as the metals simply still won't retrace
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Overnight action

Japan: -0.6% @ 16911
China: latter day recovery, +0.8% @ 2897
Germany: currently -0.9% @ 9738
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