12pm update - already turning positive

With oil turning positive, currently +0.6% in the $34s, US equity indexes have naturally followed, with the sp'500 breaking a new cycle high of 1980. The giant psy' level of 2K will be viable as early as tomorrow, but more probable on Friday. Despite current gains: Gold +$7, the precious metals look highly vulnerable into mid March.


sp'daily5

GLD, daily2

Summary

Little to add.

Anyone still trying to short ahead of the ECB (March 10th) and the FOMC (March 16th) is arguably way too early.

There still seems no hurry.
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VIX update from Mr T.    due

*seemingly taking a week off*

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time for lunch

11am update - another monstrous oil surplus

The latest EIA report showed a net weekly surplus of 10.4 million barrels. For the moment, the market doesn't particularly care, with oil lower by just -1.3% in the $33s. Most indexes look prone to turning positive into the afternoon, and continue clawing toward their respective 200dmas.


sp'daily5

Summary

The oil surplus really shouldn't come as a surprise, as supply is NOT being cut anywhere. Indeed, many recognise that there is potential for further supply coming online before end year.

Capitulation in WTIC oil is under $20.

If we are $38/40 by mid March, I'd even consider a mid term short, via USO.

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notable strength, tech, QCOM, daily

Clearly headed for the gap zone.. where the 200dma is near. QCOM is just one of dozens of individual stocks I follow, ALL highly supportive of the notion of the sp'2020/40 zone.. before the next rollover.
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Here in London city...

A rather fierce icy wind... with stormy showers.
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time to cook


11.05am... and the indexes turn green... already.

10am update - no downside power

It remains the case that the equity bears are largely powerless.. with most indexes opening just a little lower. Net daily gains are clearly viable, and regardless of today, a test of 2K looks inevitable, if not the 2020/40 zone by the FOMC of March 16th.


sp'daily5

GLD, daily

Summary

re: Gold. Still looks due to retrace to the red zone. There is a clear 10 trading day window... and even though I've a target of GLD 125 (aka Gold $1300)... there seems little reason to get involved right now.

Cyclically, we've already ticked lower... and its indicative of just how powerful the recent rally was.
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As for equities, its kinda embaressing that the equity bears can barely muster a moderate retrace lower, after what were super strong Tuesday gains.

VIX is +3%.. but only in the 18s... with 16/15s viable with sp'2K.

Instruments like TVIX/UXVY will surely melt lower across the next two weeks. There is likely no hurry on the next volatility-long trade.
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time for some sun... back soon