12pm update - trying to floor

US equities remain broadly lower, with the sp' having slipped to 1922, with VIX 21.07. However, today's action does little to stall the rally/bounce from 1810. The sp'1950/60s still look very probable in the near term. Metals are catching a clear fear bid, with Gold +$15.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Unless I see VIX 24s, with a daily close <sp'1900, I still can't take any of this morning's price action seriously.
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notable strength...

Cracker Barrel (CBRL), daily

I forget who first suggested I look at this one (Brelsa?), but Cracker Barrel sure looks strong. Is this where all the lower gasoline 'savings' are going from Mr US consumer?

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VIX update from Mr T. 



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time for lunch

11am update - bears still look largely powerless

Despite breaking a marginal new low of sp'1928 - with VIX 20.41, the equity bears still look weak, and the market looks extremely prone to renewed upside. First target remains the 1950/65 zone, which would likely equate to VIX 18/17s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*Oil is clearly causing some problems, -4.0% in the $32s.
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A marginally interesting morning... but really, is anyone seriously expecting a straight run under sp'1810 from here?

We've a clear minor gap zone of 1924/17.. and that is already close.
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The next few weeks will likely annoy many... as the market looks continually vulnerable, but looks set to push another 3-5% higher.
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notable weakness...

FCX -6%.. as those getting overly hysterical yesterday are again hearing bankruptcy chatter.

BAC -2.9%... as any hope of higher rates later in the year continues to fade.

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Here in London city...

Kinda chilly (7c), but its fine... and another day closer to summer :)

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time to cook...

10am update - opening black fail for the VIX

US equities open moderately lower to sp'1935, but the opening black-fail candle for the VIX is highly suggestive that we're still set for the 1950/60s in the near term before any chance of a retrace into end month. Metals are holding early sig' gains, Gold +$12, with Silver +0.7%.


VIX'60min

sp'60min

Summary

It should be clear to most.. there simply isn't any real downside power.. and we're set to resume higher.

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notable strength... miners

GDX, daily

The mining ETF breaks a new multi-month high. The lower red zone now looks increasingly out of range... even if Gold cools to $1180/70 by mid March. Broader upside target for April/May... $25/26.
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stay tuned