Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are significantly higher, sp +20pts, we're set to open at 1849. USD is seeing a moderate bounce, +0.3% in the DXY 95.80s. Metals are cooling, Gold -$8, with Silver -0.2%. Oil is +1.0% in the $27s.


sp'60min

Summary

There are multiple aspects of resistance in the 1850/70s... not least declining trend, which at the close of today will be 1872.

Equity bulls should be frankly content with any weekly close in the 1850/60s... and that should keep open the door for a brief foray into the 1900s before month end.

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Overnight action

Japan: -4.8% @ 14952... lousy end to the week, but looks vulnerable to a rebound... if China bounce next week.

Germany: currently +1.7% @ 8902.
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notable stock...

Boeing (BA)

Seen on the giant monthly cycle, this stock has already seen a 50% retrace of the gains from 2011. Ugly outlook...to the mid 70s.
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*awaiting retail sales data.... and a few other things...


8.58am.. Retail sales, +0.2% m/m     reasonable.

sp +23pts... 1852.

Meanwhile.. DB says it will buy back some of its debt... stock is +9% in the $16s. Clearly... its all fine now, right?

It sure ain't dull

It was another very dynamic day in the US equity market, with the sp'500 fractionally breaking the Jan'20th low, flooring at 1810, and settling -22pts @ 1829. Near term outlook offers a bounce into the 1900s, but broadly.. the 1600s look a rather comfortable target this spring.


sp'weekly1b

sp'weekly8e

Summary

Suffice to add... another short term bounce looks due, but broadly.. this market is clearly broken.

We're headed to the low 1600s.. and will likely see the VIX 40/50s in March/April.

The real issue is what the names of the mini black swans will be this spring... CHK, FCX, TCK, SDRL, RIG, Glencore, or perhaps a financial with the initials DB?
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Market/econ chatter from Schiff



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Looking ahead

Friday has a wheel barrow of econ data... retail sales, import/export prices, bus' inventories, consumer sent'.

*Fed officials Kaplan and Dudley are on the loose, and Mr Market will be listening.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed broadly lower, but well above the mid afternoon lows (intra low sp'1810), settling -22pts @ 1829. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.4% and -1.0% respectively. Near term outlook offers yet another chance for a 4-7 day rally, back above the sp'1900 threshold.


sp'daily5

Nasdaq comp'

R2K

Summary

*I highlight the Nasdaq and the R2K, as they have been recently leading, below their respective Jan'20th lows, with the sp'500 following today.
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The sp'500 has a moderately secure short term floor of sp'1810... with high threat of a swing into the 1900s by the end of next week.

It should be clear though, sustained action >2K is completely out of range.

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a little more later..