12pm update - positively choppy

US equities remain moderately higher, having hit an intra high of sp'1881, along with VIX cooling to 25.94. Despite a net build of 4 million barrels, Oil has swung from early declines of -2% to +3%. Equity/energy bears are looking very exhausted.


sp'60min

USO'daily2

Summary

Suffice to add... a short term floor for equities and oil seems probable.

Of course, the mid term outlook into the late spring/early summer remains utterly unchanged.

If the market can rally to sp'1970 or so.. that will merely make for a straight forward re-short in February.
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VIX update from Mr T




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time for tea

11am update - leaning toward the bulls

Despite another very messy open, with the market swinging from sp'1868 to 1848, the underlying price momentum is starting to turn back toward the bulls, with the sp+18pts @ 1877.  For the moment, there is no clarity until >sp'1900, or a break of <1812.


spdaily3 - fib issues

VIX'daily3

Summary

*awaiting EIA oil report
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**a second spiky floor daily candle.. offering another sign that the bears are exhausted.
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It remains messy, but having fallen from 2018 to 1812 (269pts, 12.9%)... we're clearly at increasing threat of a bounce.


re: chart' sp'daily3

I see a lot of talk about sp'2040.. but that looks damn difficult... and would take the market back above the monthly 10MA. So. no... I'm ruling that out. Instead... the sp'1970s would be my best guess. From there... target would be the low 1600s.

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Meanwhile.. here in London city...

Short term sunset for the equity bears?

Bear market under construction

Another damn chilly day in the metropolis, but another day closer to summer :)

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time to cook
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11.01am .. EIA , oil surplus,, 4 million barrels!

Oil is seeing minor chop.... one of those days where still a lousy number, but vulnerable to upside as the energy/oil bears need to close out.


11.08am.. Oil bears are getting hit.... Oil +1.2%....   and that is inspiring the broader market.

For those resolutely holding short...its starting to look kinda ugly.

10am update - opening shaky gains

As has been the case many times in the past few weeks, US equities open higher... but the gains are clearly shaky, with indexes quickly turning negative. On the bullish side, a powerful spike floor from sp'1812. On the bearish side, 1812 makes little sense as a key low, with weekly/monthly cycles suggestive of 1730 before end month.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Draghi has done his best to 'inspire' the EU/world capital markets.

Clearly, the gains still aren't sustaining, but neither is the market imploding.

Best guess... 1812 holds.. with a daily close >1900... tomorrow/next Monday. However, I will note, I have VERY LOW confidence in the near term outlook.

The bigger mid term looks clear though, with the sp'1600/1500s by late spring/early summer. Ironically, the real issue is how will the central banks respond to that kind of equity drop?
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notable weakness....

CHK -4%.. ahead of the oil/nat' gas reports

NFLX -5%, I guess a PE of >300 is just a little too high?
STX -6%
TWTR -2%...  lousy..

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time for some sun... or I'll get even more twitchy than this market.

... back for the Oil report at 10.30am.



BACK...

10.30am.. Ohh right.. the Oil report is 11.00am.

sp +9pts @ 1868....  equity bears looking tired.. but until >1900... there remains threat... if decreasing.
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