11am update - sunshine for the bull maniacs

Despite a rather significant cool down from pre-market gains (sp+30pts @ 1910) to an early low of 1885, the market still looks set for a daily close >1900. VIX is naturally cooling, -4% in the 25s, and looks set for the 20/18 zone by next Wednesday.


sp'60min2

VIX'60min

Summary

It is clearly a bit of a mess... as the market is battling hard to solidify gains.

It seems highly probable that sp'1857 is a short term floor... headed for 1940/60.. before resuming to the 1700s. The only issue is how long that might take... February.. or a more choppy decline into March/April.

In any case.. the 1600s look a comfortable target, no later than May/June.

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Here in London city...

Icy sun

Next full moon... Jan'24th

Most of everything is frozen.. but the sunshine sure does help.
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time to cook

10am update - opening gains.. but shaky

US equities are making yet another attempt to rally, but despite looking distinctly shaky in the opening 20mins, a net daily gain looks due. Regardless of any short term bounce into the next FOMC, the mid term outlook remains absolutely clear, with the sp'1700s highly probable after the next bounce. 


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

*opening reversal candle in the VIX... with a black-fail candle for the indexes.

Daily cycles argue AGAINST any further equity downside in the near term, and so I'm dismissing the opening 20mins of weakness.
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So... pre-market gains of 30pts.. and we're already at just +6pts.

Overall though, bearish momentum in the short term should lessen, and in theory, we should comfortably hold the Friday low of sp'1857.

For the moment, I sure ain't getting hysterical about the initial cooling.

It should be clear... whatever degree of upside we get into the next FOMC... it will make for more reasonable level to re-short from.

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time for some sun... back soon

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are significantly higher, sp +30pts, we're set to open at 1910. Broad upside into the next FOMC of Jan 27th is expected, probably to the 1960s. Sustained action >2K looks out of range.


sp'60min

Summary

Well, its Tuesday... and all of the doomer chat over the long weekend has amounted to nothing.

We are clearly due a bounce, having cooled from 2081 to 1857 across 13 trading days.

Right now, it would seem we'll max out next Tue/Wed' afternoon in the 1960s.

From there, next wave should take us to the 1750/25 zone.
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early movers...

AAPL +1.3% @ $98s
DIS +1.3% @ $95s
FCX +4.1%
NFLX +2.1%

TVIX -10.3% in the $9.40s. The 6s look viable next week... and I will be a likely buyer there.
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Update from an increasingly bearish (mid term) Oscar



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Overnight action...

Japan: very unstable session, +0.5% @ 17048
China: messy open, but then climbing, +3.2% @ 3007, a natural back test to 3400s looks probable before next wave to 2500s.

Germany: currently +2.2% @ 9730

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Have a good Tuesday