Tuesday, 22 December 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are a little higher, sp +6pts, we're set to open at 2027. USD continues to cool, -0.2% in the DXY 98.10s. Gold -$3. Oil +0.7%.


sp'60min


Summary

*Q3 GDP: revised fractionally lower to 2.0%
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Little to add.

A second day of gains look due. The sp'2040s are certainly within range today.
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Update from Oscar



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Have a good Tuesday

A year end close above the 10MA?

It was a naturally rather subdued start to Christmas week. Regardless of the near term moves, what is far more important is how the leading world equity markets close the year. Can the US Dow/sp'500, the German DAX, the Japanese Nikkei, and the Chinese Shanghai comp' close above their respective monthly 10MAs ?


US - Dow, monthly



Germany, DAX



Japan



China


Summary

*I'll cover the year end closes in the world markets... the weekend of Jan'2/3.
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Not much to add.

Merely to highlight that equity bulls should be desperate to see at least the leading markets break/hold their respective monthly 10MAs.

A December fail would be bad.
A January fail would be REALLY bad.. and bode for the August lows to be tested.. and broken.

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Update from Mr C.


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Looking ahead

Tuesday will see the second/final rev' for Q3 GDP. Market is expecting a fractionally weaker 2.0%. Any number >2.1% would bode reasonably okay for the economic bulls.

Other data: house price index, existing home sales.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed moderately higher sp +15pts @ 2021. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.7% and 0.6% respectively. Near term outlook is for seasonal upside, at least to 2050/60s, but an attempt to close the year in the 2100s remains very viable.


sp'daily5



Trans


Summary

A short term double floor of sp'2005 looks in place. First soft target are the 50/200 day MA's in the sp'2060s... and then the resistance zone of 2075/80.

There are just 6.5 trading days left of the year, but a year end close in the sp'2100s remains very viable.
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Update from Riley


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a little more later...