12pm update - moderately weak

US equities remain moderately weak, and a little choppy in the low sp'2070s. USD remains very significantly lower, -1.9% in the DXY 98.10s. A daily close in the 97s would be suggestive that the USD has a double top - from March... of DXY 100, with at least short term implications for Oil and the metals.


sp'daily5

UUP, daily

Summary

The drop in the dollar is getting borderline severe.

As for whether we have a clear double top - from the March high, that is going to take some days, if not a few weeks to have clarity.

In any case... King dollar is having a rough day. I'd imagine the FOREX retail amateurs are having a wild day!
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Next support for the sp'500 is the 200dma @ 2065/64.
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VIX update from Mr T.



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time for tea :)
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12.18pm... USD -2.0%... rather severe indeed.

Oil is benefiting... +2.0%... and that is helping some of the energy stocks.

notable strength: RIG +3.3%

... sp'500 testing the 200dma of 2065/64.

If this is a tease to the equity bears before a jobs data hyper-ramp... this is truly cruel.
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12.27pm... sp'2062.... so.. now its case of whether we close above.. or below the 200dma.

Clearly.. a weekly close in the 2100s is now off the menu.

notable weakness, CHK -9.8%.. having lost the $5.00 threshold.... a lot of institutions are likely going to clear the deck on that one.

11am update - the Yellen continues

Whilst Yellen is answering the often laughably benign questions from the US finance committee, equities are struggling, having broken the second marginally higher low of sp'2070. USD remains -1.4% in the DXY 98.50s. That is helping inspire commodities, Gold +$4, with Oil +0.6%


sp'daily5

Trans, daily

Summary

*the 11am hour.. a typical turn time. Indexes could easily turn positive into the afternoon.
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Far more notable than the sp'500 - the loss of 8K for the Transports. It is a key trend break from the Aug' lows. I suppose it could just be a brief tease to the bears... but really... it is an alarm bell of some degree.

Despite the morning weakness... certainly lower than I expected... my bullish outlook into end year is unchanged.
 
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Meanwhile... here in London city....

A rather nice end to the day.

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time to cook !
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11.16am... we're seeing a clear turn upward....  short-stop cascade... bears are ON the run!

indexes turning positive.

10am update - busy times

With the ECB out of the way, it remains a very busy time, with Yellen at 10am (will last 2-3hrs), OPEC are due to meet... with the last big data point before the FOMC - monthly jobs data (Friday). USD has snapped lower, -1.2% in the DXY 98.80s... and that is helping metals/oil.. and indeed.. US equities.


sp'60min

USO'daily2

Summary

re: oil. An inside day?  Probably.... with a viable snap above declining trend tomorrow.
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Reminder on ECB changes...

Deposit rate: -10bps to -0.3%
monthly QE of €60bn extended from Sept'2016 to March 2017.
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Clearly, currency changes are causing all manner of price moves this morning.

Regardless of the opening equity swings.... the broader upward trend should resume no later than 11am.

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notable strength... energy stocks...

APC, daily

Price structure offers an extremely secure floor. First soft target is the 50dma @ $65.

I am long oil/energy via RIG...  seeking a sig' Friday jump!

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time for a little sun... back soon
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10.30am.. sp -10pts... 2068... Hmm... that is a clear 1% swing from pre-market highs.

Broadly though... I'm still bullish. I ain't getting rattled with this.