Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are fractionally higher, sp +2pts, we're set to open at 2091. USD is on the rise, +0.4% in the DXY 99.90s. Metals are under pressure, Gold -$2. Oil is -1.8% in the $42s.. ahead of the EIA report.


sp'60min

WTIC Oil, daily

Summary

The sp'2070 low should comfortably hold.. and a break into the 2100s is clearly viable today.

In theory.. we should at least push to the 2110/20s next week/early December.

I realise some are looking for weakness into the FOMC of Dec'16th, but I'm highly suspicious the market might make a straight run for the 2150/70 zone.

re: Oil. Cyclically.. due to rally into next week. So.. even if today's Oil report shows another build... the price might well rally regardless. First target are the $45s.


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Update from Mr C



The issue on stops and GTC orders... its very important, and I'll get around to covering it soon. There are a great many implications that most haven't been considered.
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Doomer chat, Hunter with Mannarino



As ever.. make of that.. what you will.
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Overnight Asia action

Japan: moderately weak, -0.4%.. still close to re-taking 20K
China: strength into the close... +0.9% @ 3647.

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Have a good Wednesday
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8.31am.. Jobless 260k....

Durable goods orders, +3.0%.. much better than expected, with positive revisions.

Pers' income/outlays... inline.

equities pushing upward, sp +3pts... 2092... the 2100s look due today.

Metals weakening... Gold -$5 to $1069... the low to break is 1062. Higher rates bodes bearish for the metals... the giant psy' level of $1000 looms.

Holiday week gains

It would seem the market found an excuse for a pre-holiday washout, achieving a higher low of sp'2070. Now it is merely a case of whether we'll see net weekly gains (>2089). Equity bears look very weak, and there is now threat of a straight up run to the 2150/70 zone by the next FOMC of Dec'16th.


sp'weekly7

Summary

A net weekly gain looks increasingly likely.. and indeed, we look on track to settle this week in the sp'2100s.. with new historic highs now seemingly due by mid December.

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Looking ahead

There is a truck load of econ-data due...

Durable goods orders, weekly jobs (a day early)
Personal income/outlays, house price index
PMI service sector, new home sales
Consumer sent'
EIA oil report, Nat' gas report
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Since Thursday is closed, price action in the latter half of tomorrow will likely be extremely muted.. as many traders will be not want to get involved ahead of the holiday.

So.. once we get the data out of the way.. by 11am.. indexes will likely flat line.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +2pts @ 2089 (intra low 2070). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.6% and +0.7% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed upside into the 2100s... and to new historic highs >2134.


sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

*airlines were under distinct pressure.. partly due to geo-political issues, but also arguably due to higher oil prices.
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As for the sp'500, the 2100s look due within the next 1-3 trading days. The only issue is whether the November monthly close is a little above... or below the sp'2100 threshold.

Right now.. the underlying pressure is unquestionably toward the upside.

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a little more later..