Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately lower on the news of Turkey shooting down a Russian military jet, sp -12pts, we're set to open at 2074. A brief foray to test the 200dma (2065) looks probable... as the market has a serious excuse to wash itself out.


sp'60min

Summary

*overnight futures low, sp -18pts, equiv' to 2070.
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So... Turkey shoots down a Russian military fighter, accusing the Russians of violating their airspace.

This is geo-political true doomster stuff. Were I in Turkey right now... I'd be on DEFCON 4, not least with Erdogan in charge.

As for equities... best guess... a washout to 2065... more viable today than tomorrow.
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Other issues...

Gold, +$10, a clear fear bid... although the lower USD is no doubt helping
Oil +1.7%.. clear geo-pol' fear related. Related oil/gas drillers are benefiting.

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awaiting GDP data..............


8.30am... Q3 GDP rev'1:  2.1%... inline...

Futures increasingly weak, sp -15pts.. .2071.

So... 2065 by late morning, and then UP.

... unless the Russians want to start shooting back.

The November closing candle

US equities started the holiday week in a naturally subdued manner, and appear to just be retracing a little. Sustained action <sp'2060 looks extremely unlikely, and it is arguably just a case of how strongly the month closes. Even if rates are raised at the Dec' FOMC, the market should be able to keep on pushing upward.


sp'monthly1b

sp'weekly2

Summary

The Oct' monthly close was a powerful one, and in many ways, very much like Oct'2011. It is also notable that Nov'2011 settled fractionally red, but from there.... the market effectively doubled across 3 years.

The 10MA is currently @ 2058/59. Any close in the 2060s would be another major victory for the bull maniacs, with a key higher low of 2019.
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Update from Oscar



The issue of the NYSE banning GTC orders (from Feb' 2016) is something I will cover another day. There are some grander issues surrounding this very disturbing change.

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Looking ahead

Tuesday will see Q3 GDP (first rev'). market is expecting an improved number of 2.1%. Anything <1.0% would be a real problem for the econ-bulls.

Other data: case-shiller HPI, consumer con', Richmond fed.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -2pts at 2086 (intra high 2095). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.9% and +0.4% respectively. Regardless of any further retrace, the broader trend remains bullish into the 2100s... and to new historic highs before year end.


sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

*the 'old leader' - Trans, still struggling to break/hold the 200dma... as was lost in May.
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The sp'500 should comfortably hold the 2060s for the rest of the year... and my 'reasonable' bullish target is 2150/70 at year end.

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a little more later...