11am update - borderline significant

US equities are breaking new cycle lows to sp'2077.. with VIX battling upward to 16.17. It would seem extremely probable that 2116 is a short term peak, and we're set to decline to the 2020s, but that will take until opex week. Oil is notably weak, -1.2% in the $43s.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

With a break into the 2070s, there should be little doubt now... a test of the 200dma (sp'2062) is due this week.. the only issue is how much below that can we fall this week.

Right now, the 2040/30s look overly difficult.
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notable strength: DIS +0.8% in the $116s... as the Star Wars hysteria inexorably builds

weakness: TWTR -4.0%.. the momo chasers are on the run today.

10am update - opening weakness

US equities open moderately lower, with the sp' -0.6% in the 2080s. Market looks set for the 2060s this week, with 2020s viable by Nov' opex.  Oil is notably weak for the fourth consecutive day, -0.2%


sp'daily5

USO' daily2

Summary

*VIX confirming the opening equity weakness, +9%... aiming for a break into the 16s.
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So, we're lower, and the sp' looks set for a fourth net daily decline... although clearly, we're yet to see any significant downside action.

Even the mainstream seem to recognise that after six weeks up... we are due a retrace.

Frankly, if we aren't at least briefly in the 2020s - where the 50dma will be by Nov'opex, I'll be surprised.
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notable weakness:

AA, -2.0%... ugly broader chart.. despite the main market ramp from August.
TSLA -1.6%
UAL -1.6%... airlines struggling, even with Oil red.

strength: Oil/gas drillers, RIG/SDRL, both +1% or so. Although broadly,  both stocks remain utterly destroyed since summer 2014.
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stay tuned.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately lower, sp -5pts, we're set to open at 2094. USD is cooling, -0.2% in the DXY 98.90s. Gold +$6. Oil +0.4% in the $44s.


sp'daily5

Summary

Unless we break above sp'2116, a retrace is still viably already underway.

Equity bears should be seeking a daily close under the 10MA (2092 or so).

Daily MACD (blue bar histogram) is set to turn negative late today/early tomorrow.

Min' downside target is the 200dma in the 2060s, but almost equally likely is the 50dma, which by Nov' opex will be in the 2020s.

On no realistic outlook does sustained price action under the sp'2K threshold look possible in the remainder of the year.

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Overnight Asia action

Japan: +2.0% @ 19642... the big 20K threshold is within range
China: +1.6% @ 3646.. cruising upward.

Indeed, Asia and European markets are broadly battling upward, and look set to re-take old support of the 10MA.. whether by end Nov... or end year.
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Have a good Monday.