12pm update - remaining moderately weak

US equities are seeing renewed weakness, with the morning low of sp'2083 set to be broken this afternoon. Daily MACD cycles continue to swing back toward the bears.. offering a retrace (at min) to the 200dma in the low 2060s.. and almost equally viable.. the 50dma in the 2020s, viable within 4-7 trading days.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

So.. a hell of a lot of price chop today.. as the market is battling it out.

Daily charts remain suggestive of a near term retrace.. and I'm still calling 2116 a short term high.

notable weakness... as the USD +1.2% in the DXY 99.20s.

Oil -1.9% in the $44s
Gold -$16, with Silver -1.6%, with the related miners, GDX -3.2%
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VIX update from Mr R.



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time for tea.

11am update - daily cycles still ticking lower

US equities remain moderately mixed, with the sp' seeing an early low of 2083.. just 2/3pts above core rising trend. For now.. the hourly cycles are threatening renewed upside to the 2120s..  but... the daily MACD cycles are very close to officially turning bearish.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

*there are an absolute mountain of key issues to highlight.... not least the USD, metals/oil, and hell, lets not forget the bond market.

TLT -1.5% in the $118s, but I'll have to cover that later... no time right now.

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The grander issue is that the mainstream is now adjusting to the notion of higher rates. Ohh, and I realise some out there will still say it won't happen.. and that besides... we're still going to collapse to sp'1500.. or lower next year. Right?

I can only suggest people consider BAC.

It is arguably a powerful signal - once a monthly close >$18... of where the broader market is headed next year.

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time to cook

10am update - the USD juggernaut

Whilst equities trade moderately lower, and remain very vulnerable... the real story remains the USD, +1.3% in the DXY 99.20s. The implications for the giant intl' corps, precious metals.. and Oil.. should be absolutely clear. Not surprisingly, financials are soaring.. on the realisation that rates are set to start rising.


UUP, daily

sp'60min

Summary

A pretty incredible early morning.. as the USD explodes into the DXY 99s, and threatening a monthly close in the DXY 100s. The mid/long term implications of another huge wave higher should be clear.
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So.. equities are VERY mixed, and financials explode higher, but energy/miners, and heavy industrials suffer.

Broadly, the market is STILL due a retrace... with a natural basic target of the 200dma of sp'2063


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Metals are imploding...

GLD, daily

Gold loses the key $1100 threshold. $1000 looks due before year end. Again.. implications for the related mining stocks are clear.
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notable strength: DIS

Earnings were fine... stock is headed far far higher.... next year. Near term.. still vulnerable.. with the main market... not least due to currency issues.
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BAC... testing the $18 threshold.

Target by late spring/early summer 2016..... $22/23.....   do the math.. and extrapolate to the sp'500.
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time to shop.... back soon


10.35am... back...

so.. we've sp'2083... a little bounce.... but remaining vulnerable as the daily cycles continue to swing back toward the equity bears.

Clearly, currency changes are going to spook some... would impact the Dow most (in theory).