Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are fractionally lower (ahead of the jobs data), sp -1pt, we're set to open at 2098. USD is +0.2% in the DXY 98.10s. Gold +$5. Oil u/c.


sp'60min

Summary

Little to add.. ahead of the jobs data.

Equity bears must see a weekly close <2100...any net daily gain today...and a retrace could be delayed until new historic highs.

notable early mover....

DIS, -0.4% in the $112s.... earnings were fine, although in theory, like the broader market, the stock is cyclically due a retrace

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Doomer chat with Hunter


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Futures now with the Schiff


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Overnight Asia action

Japan: +0.8% @ 19265
China: +1.9% @ 3590..  a rather bullish end to a bullish week.

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Have a good Friday

.. awaiting the jobs data...


8.31am.. Net job gains:  271k,  headline rate: 5.0%. 

Equities snap sharply lower.

USD is SCREAMING upward.. +1.2% in the DXY 99s.

GOLD loses the $1100 threshold, -$10

ohoh... this is serious stuff!
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8.35am.. Equities are pretty unstable... sp' swings from -7pts to +4pts.

Underlying issue remains.... USD is strong... now a mere 1% from ultimate breakout.

Metals remain dire.. Gold -$8

.... sp -4pts.


8.39am.. Gold -$12..  Silver -1.1%...   miners.. GDX -2.7%..

Key thresholds breaking.... Gold bugs look toast into year end.... as expected.
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notable strength: financials... BAC +2.6%.. on higher rate hopes.
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8.43am.. sp -7pts... 2092.... with rising support @ 2080.

Clearly, its not going to be a sig' gap lower... and bears are going to find it tough to break into the 2070s..

Anyway... again, the real issue here is the USD... and the related implications for commodities, notably Oil and Gold.... and their related drillers/miner stocks.
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8.48am... USD +1.3% in the DXY 99.20s...

Metals imploding.... Gold -$14.. $1090/89 or so. New multi-year lows <1072 are coming, but then.... you knew that... right?

sp' holding -7pts.
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8.57am... things slowly unravelling. sp -10pts... 2089.

Gold -$16.. in the $1080s...  miners, GDX -3.3%
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9.00am... Oil following the metals... -1.6%... pressured by KING dollar.

BAC powering +3.2%
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9.15am... USD +1.4% in the DXY 99.30s... incredible.. but not surprising.

Gold -$17...    new lows <1072 imminent.

What are the gold bugs going to blame for this? JPM, the Fed... or would they even turn on the Schiff?
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Equities remain choppy.... sp -5pts... 2094.... the gains in the financials are helping keep things together.

King Dollar pushing upward

USD remains king of FIAT land, and so far this month, is net higher by 1.1% @ DXY 98.11. Next key upside target is the giant psy' level of 100. Any monthly close >100, will open the door to another massive appreciation.. at least to the 120s.


USD, monthly1

USD, weekly

Summary

Suffice to note... the weekly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is turning positive.

The giant monthly cycle is offering price structure of a massive bull flag that been growing since the high of DXY 100.71 in March.

Implications of a higher USD should be pretty clear. In particular.. Oil/precious metals will be especially vulnerable to underlying downward pressure.
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Update from Oscar




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Looking ahead

Friday will see consumer credit data (3pm), but far more important to the market.. the latest monthly jobs data.

Market is expecting 190k net gains, with a slightly lower headline jobless rate of 5.0%. Any number much above 200K could be considered as 'good news as bad news' in terms of int' rates.

*it is highly notable that Fed official Bullard will be speaking in early morning.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed a touch weak, sp -2pts @ 2099 (intra low 2090). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and u/c respectively. Near term outlook offers the 200dma @ 2062.. along with VIX 18/20 zone. Best bearish case by Nov' opex remains 2020.. where the 50dma will soon be lurking.


sp'daily5

Dow

Summary

Little to add.

US equities are still holding within the upward trend from the Aug/Sept' lows.

At best, equity bears could manage a 38% fib' retrace to the sp'2020s by Nov' opex... but from there... resuming upward into year end... and beyond.

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a little more later...