Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are a little higher, sp +5pts, we're set to open at 2107. USD is u/c @ DXY 97.95. Metals are flat. Oil is -0.3% in the $46s.


sp'60min

Summary

So... we're set to open higher, but the gains look unsustainable... not least with the big jobs data tomorrow.

A daily close in the 2090s is kinda important for the equity bears, as that will keep within range the 200dma of sp'2062.
--


early movers...

FB +4% in the $108s... moderately okay earnings, market still cares more about revenue gains.
QCOM -5.5% in the $56s... despite good earnings
WFM -6.7%.... lousy earnings
-


Interest rate chatter from Schiff



I'm certainly open to the notion of a rate hike in Dec', but it was notable yesterday how Yellen would not rule out negative rates if the economy softened a little.
--

Overnight Asia action

Japan: +1.0% @ 19116.
China: +1.8% @ 3522.. continuing to battle upward.
-

DIS have earnings at the close of today, and that will be VERY interesting. I'm expecting a sig' gap lower... even if the numbers are reasonable. Cyclically.. the daily chart is turning negative.

Have a good Thursday

More lunacy in China

Whilst US equities saw moderate weakness in the Wednesday session, there was notable strength in the China market, with the Shanghai comp' +4.3% @ 3459. The jump higher was due to 'recycled news'. Even after a subsequent realisation though, the market held the gains.


China, daily

China, monthly

Summary

Unlike the US market, the Shanghai' comp' - along with most other world markets, is still to attain a monthly close above the key 10MA.

For China, that currently stands @ 3715. A Nov' or Dec' close in the 3800s is rather important.. and would then offer hyper upside in 2016... at least to 5K, and almost equally viable, test the historic 2007 high of 6124.

... and yes.. I recognise that a move from 4K to 6K is a clear 50%.... but then the move from 2K (summer 2014) to 5K (summer 2015) was a monstrous 150% ramp.

--

Looking ahead

Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs, productivity/costs.

*there are a wheel barrow of Fed officials appearing.. notably Dudley and Fischer.
--

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed moderately weak, sp -7pts @ 2102 (intra low 2096). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.6% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers a cycle high of 2116, with first downside target of the 200dma (2060s), and secondary of the 2020s.


sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

A second day lower for the 'old leader' - Trans. First support is the 50dma... about 1.5% lower.
--

Sp'500 looks to have a short term cycle peak of 2116. A retrace to the 200dma in the 2060s looks highly probable.. if not the 2020s before Nov' opex.

From there... broadly higher into year end... even if the fed raise rates 25bps.

--
a little more later...