Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately lower, sp -7pts, we're set to open at 2097. USD is +0.2% in the DXY 97.10s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$2... whilst Oil is +0.7%.


sp'daily5

Summary

First soft target for the equity bears is the Friday close of 2079. After yesterdays gains, a break below that looks out of range today.

It is notable that any negative close today will keep the door open to a sig' break lower this Thurs/Friday. Naturally, it would likely be the Friday... with the jobs data.

A retrace IS due, but those hoping for anything more are surely going to be very disappointed by year end.
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Corp' news.  Activision (ATVI) purchase the makers of Candy Crush (KING).  This is perhaps the dumbest deal I've seen in some years.

KING, daily

ATVI have paid almost $6bn ($18 a share) for a company that is worth arguably.....nothing. I can only imagine the CEO/board of ATVI are lost for ideas.. and thus went for the old 'lets go buy a company' strategy.

ATVI, daily

This purchase will likely come to haunt ATVI within a few years.  At least EA weren't stupid enough to do such a thing.


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Update from a typically loud Mr C.



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Have a good Tuesday
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*awaiting Factory Orders data (10am)

The week starts bullish

US equities started the week on a particularly bullish note, with the sp' breaking a new cycle high of 2106... making for a monstrous 235pt ramp from the marginally higher low of sp'1871.. a mere 25 trading days ago. New historic highs >2134 still look unlikely before a retrace occurs.


sp'weekly1b

sp'monthly3c

Summary

*second consecutive green candle on the monthly 'rainbow' chart, something we've not seen since Dec 2013. Again, its a reminder of just how extreme the Oct' gain was.. and how it arguably negates ALL of the broader bearish outlooks.
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Suffice to add, we currently have the sixth consecutive net weekly gain... but by the end of this week, I have to believe we'll be at least moderately red.. somewhere close, or even below the 200dma (2062).

Despite today's positive start to the week, a retrace to the 50dma (2020/10s.. before Nov' opex)... still looks due.


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Looking ahead

Tuesday will see Factory orders data.... but Mr Market will no doubt be more focused on the monthly jobs data due this Friday.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +24pts @ 2104 (intra high 2106). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.4% and 2.1% respectively. With a new cycle high, the outlook for a retrace is back on hold.. but is clearly due, with the market having ramped 235pts (12.5%) from the 1871 low, a mere 25 trading days ago.


sp'daily5

Nasdaq comp'

Summary

*it is very notable that the Nasdaq is within 2% of a new historic high (5231).
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New cycle high for the sp' @2106.. a monstrous 235pts (12.5%) above the Sept' marginally higher low of 1871.

A retrace remains due to the 2020/10 zone. Sustained action <2K looks highly unlikely for the rest of the year.

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a little more later...