Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are a little lower, sp -3pts, we're set to open at 2068. Broadly, it would seem probable the 2080/90s will be seen before a sig' retrace begins. Energy prices continue to fall, Nat' gas -1.3%, and Oil -0.9%.


sp'daily5

Summary

*awaiting a number of econ-data points.
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Today will likely see net daily gains.. with a close in the sp'2080s.

Right now, a cycle peak looks due late tomorrow/early Thursday... from there.. downside to around the 2000 threshold.

To be clear though, I do not believe it will be a viable short-side trade... I don't intent to attempt to short it. Default trade currently is long-side.

notable early movers....

BABA +8.3% in the $82s... above the 200dma... very significant.
F -3.2%
AAPL +0.5% in the $115s.. ahead of earnings.

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Overnight Asia action

Japan: -0.9% @ 18777
China: started very weak, -2%... but managed a net gain of 0.1% @ 3434. It increasingly looks like we'll see a monthly close >3400.

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Have a good Tuesday
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8.31am.. Durable goods , -1.2%... lousy number.. but hey.. bad news is good news right?

sp -5pts... 2066... a close in the 2080s still looks probable.

China attains another close in the 3400s

Whilst US equities closed moderately mixed, there was notable strength in China. The Shanghai comp' settled +0.5%, a relatively small gain, but still, it was another very important close in the 3400s. Next upside is the monthly 10MA.. currently @ 3695.


China, daily

China, monthly

Summary

Suffice to say.. with 4 trading days left of Oct', the China market is set for the first sig' net monthly gain (currently, 12.3%) since April.

An Oct' close above the key 10MA is unlikely, but given a few weeks of minor chop/retrace.. and then further upside, a Nov' close in the 3700s looks very viable.


Looking ahead

As well as further corp' earnings, there is a fair array of econ-data...
Durable goods orders, case-shiller HPI, PMI serv', consumer con', Richmond fed

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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp -4pts @ 2071 (intra low 2066). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.2% and -0.6% respectively. Near term outlook offers the 2080/90s before a probable retrace. Post FOMC/GDP downside target is the sp'2000 threshold.


sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

Little to add.

Transports is still threatening a move to the 200dma... along with sp'2080/90s... before first significant opportunity of a turn lower.

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a little more later...