Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Equity futures are moderately lower, sp -7pts, we're set to open at 2010. USD is broadly flat in the DXY 94.80s. Metals are weak, Gold -$5.... whilst Oil is trading flat in the $47s.


sp'60min

USO'60min

Summary

The smaller 15/60min equity cycles are already on the low side... sustained action <sp'2000 looks out of range today.

More probable, morning weakness until 11am, and then a latter day rally...if somewhat choppy. Market is likely just waiting to rally on any earnings excuse.

early movers...

FCX -1.9%... miners remain seeing some strong swings.
TSLA -1.4%, continuing to have real problems
TWTR -1.5% in the $28s.. as the novelty of a new CEO is already wearing off

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Update from Oscar

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Overnight Asia action

Japan: -1.1% @ 18234
China, +0.2% @ 3293... struggling a little, but certainly not falling!
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Have a good Tuesday
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9.34am Eyes on Oil..  USO -0.9%

China will be a key signal

Whilst US equity indexes saw a day of very muted price action, there were notable gains in the Chinese Shanghai comp', which settled +3.3% @ 3287. A few daily closes >3400 would be suggestive the communist leadership have finally achieved their aim of stalling the down wave from June.


China, daily

Summary

Clearly, the SSEC is challenging the declining resistance/trend, but infinitely more important is the 3400 threshold.

Lets be clear...

A failure to clear 3400 would be a real problem for the bull maniacs, and offer renewed weakness, with viable new lows into November.

On the flip side.. a few daily closes in the 3400s will offer the first real sign that the collapse wave (from the 5100s).. is probably complete.

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Looking ahead

There is very little scheduled tomorrow... just US Treasury budget data at 2pm.

*Fed official Bullard is due to speak in the early morning, and that might make for an excuse for an initial moderate sell down before resuming higher.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +2pts @ 2017. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook is for further upside to the 2040/60 zone before the next FOMC of Oct' 28th.


sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

Most indexes settled net higher for the 9th of 10 trading days.
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With the 'old leader' -Transports, breaking above declining resistance/trend, it looks headed for the 200dma in the 8500s... along with sp'2060.

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a little more later...