Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately higher (ahead of the jobs data), sp +9pts, we're set to open at 1932. USD is +0.1% in the DXY 96.20s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$7... the $1100 threshold is set to be tested. Oil is broadly flat.


sp'60min

Summary

Little to add... ahead of the jobs data.

As ever, it will not be the number itself that matters... but how the market interprets it.
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Overnight Asia action....

Japan: essentially flat.
China: remains CLOSED until next week
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Update from Oscar


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Eyes on 1900

If we don't break under sp'1900 today... it would bode badly for the equity bears next week, and will threaten a straight run to the 200dma in the 2050s by late Oct/early Nov. 

Long day ahead
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8.32am.. 142k net gains.... 5.1 rate

Market snaps violently from +14pts.. to -5pts....

Hmm

Bad news is bad news... really?


8.33am.. sp -12pts... 1911....

8.41am..  sp -18pts.... 1905.....    almost there.

8.47am  sp -20pts... 1903....

Watching Ms. Swonk on clown finance TV.. she feels like she is in quicksand.  Well, she never did see 2008 coming either.  At least she is consistent in her failure.

notable strength, TVIX +5%... but really. that is still a small move.

Can the VIX get to 27/28s today?   Technically.. it IS possible.... right now.. it'd imply a BREAK under 1867... if 27s - relative to yesterdays' lackluster VIX.
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8.57am... sp -18pts... 1905...

.. but don't worry.. the Bernanke is on CNBC next Monday. He will make it all better..yes?


9.14am.. sp -24pts.. 1899.. so we have a threshold break.

In theory.. we should be -55pts.. around 1870/67 this afternoon.. with VIX 27/28s.


9.16am.. sp -27pts... 1896.. its pretty decisive now.

Today at least.. bad news IS bad news.. and the market is increasingly upset


9.36am.. Hourly MACD Cycle set for a bearish cross at 10am...    

Eyes on the VIX +8% in the 24.50s  ... first target 27s.

The big bearish monthly charts

Whilst Thursday saw some relatively moderate equity price swings, with a new month.. the giant monthly cycles have a new candle. For the chart maniacs out there, it should be absolutely clear that underlying price momentum continues to increasingly favour the equity bears.


sp'monthly

Dow'monthly2

Summary

re: sp'500. First, note the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle.. now at levels not seen since May 2009. Second, the lower bollinger is around 1850, and offers rather strong support in the near term. In terms of upside resistance... we have the 10MA @ 2034.

Lets be clear.. until we see a monthly close >2030, the bull maniacs are facing a major problem. For the moment... the default trade remains to the short side. On the smaller daily cycle time frame.. the 200dma (2063) is arguably the last line in the sand for the serious 'big bear' money.
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re: Dow. First, note the third consecutive red candle on the 'rainbow' (Elder Impulse) chart. Can Oct' also settle with a red candle? If so.. it'd be another major support to the notion that the August break was something other than just a short term washout.

Second, note the decisive break under the lower bollinger in August.. something not even seen in the initial break in late 2007/early 2008.

Indeed, right now... there is reasonable justification to target a test of the Oct'2007 high of 14198... some 2000pts lower than current levels.


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Looking ahead

Friday will see the latest monthly jobs data. Market is expecting 203k net gains, with a static headline jobless rate of 5.1%.

Other data: Factory orders (10am).

*there is a wheel barrow of Fed officials speaking.. inc' Fischer and Bullard. If any of them say anything to that upset Mr Market, it sure would help aid a break <sp'1900.
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Carrying the weight of the world?

For yours truly.. it was a better day than feared. Futures had largely cooled from overnight highs (equiv' to sp'1940). AAPL was knocked sig' lower in early trading, and I made good use of that opportunity to offload that position. Yet, I'm still left with four short-market positions (including long-VIX).. that I really want to exit.

If we do break <sp'1900 tomorrow (and that sure could happen even if we open higher) and are trading in the 1880/70s by late afternoon, I'll try to offload another position or two. I would consider holding across into Monday, as a test of 1867.. and even a brief foray to the 1850s still looks possible.

sp'weekly1b

The current weekly candle is threatening a spike floor. I'd really like to see a Friday close <1900... as that would keep the door open to further weakness next week.
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Thank the gods, its almost the weekend... I'm real tired... this week has felt like I'm carrying the world at times.

... always good to hear from some of you out there.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +3pts @ 1923 (intra range 1927/00). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and -0.3% respectively. Near term outlook is bearish... to the 1870/50 zone.. which would make for a rather natural mid term 'marginally lower low'.


sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

Little to add.

The daily closing candles are arguably bullish, although the smaller 15/60min cycles are on the high side, and offer sig' weakness into the weekend/next Monday.

Best guess... a break <1900... and then at least 1870s.
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a little more later...