12pm update - similar to last Friday

US equities are holding sig' gains, with the sp +23pts @ 1907, yet the setup is similar to last Friday. With 'end month' issues due this afternoon, there is distinct threat of some cooling back under the key 1900 threshold. As things are... the sp'500 is due for a net monthly decline of -66pts (3.3%).


sp'60min

sp'monthly

Summary

Little to add.

So... a second consecutive bearish month.. but is that it? Are we now going to battle straight up to the 200dma in the 2000s?

It is a scary thought.. and the rest of today will offer a hint of whether we'll start Oct' on a down note.

*I remain short... but if we see any sustained price action much above sp'1920.. I'll likely have to close out.

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VIX update from Mr T




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time to cook
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**Bonus chart**

sp'weekly6

Despite this mornings gains.. the weekly candle remains outright bearish. Something to consider.
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12.24pm.. sp @ 1900.... which is somewhat interesting.

Frankly, considering the opening.. I'd settle for any close <1900.  A red close is now within range.. so... rest of today.. could be a little exciting.
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notable weakness: DISCA -4%... downside follow through from yesterday... not a pretty daily chart.

11am update - higher low.. or lower high?

US equities remain significantly higher, with the sp +29pts @ 1913. There is rather critical declining resistance of 1915 at the close of today.. and equity bears should be desperate for a close under it. VIX is naturally cooling, -6% @ 25.00... but offering a reversal candle... much like last Friday morning.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

The ultimate issue now is whether the next smaller down cycle merely puts in a higher low.. or breaks <1872.

The daily MACD cycle is starting to tick upward... and if it holds into today's close..  its a major threat for those holding short... including yours truly.

So.. I'm awake.. getting my ass kicked... and wondering if we have a marginally higher low of sp'1872... or if this is just end month nonsense.

What should be clear... the month will STILL end net lower.

stay tuned.... 

10am update - opening gains

US equities have opened significantly higher, with the sp' already hitting a high of 1915.. with VIX in the 24s. However, the market remains vulnerable to another reversal. Right now, bears should be battling for a monthly close under the sp'1900 threshold.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

*.. fell asleep... am back now.... I guess the market opened without me.
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brb...
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Okay... so.. we have an opening reversal candle in the VIX. ... just like last Friday.  VIX has now filled the opening Monday price gap..... so we can go to the 30s now.... yes?
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... catching up on some of the data....

so.. ADP jobs 200k.... broadly inline

Chicago PMI, a recessionary 48.7.... reflecting the Sept' upset.. esp' in foreign markets.


10.31am. Oil inventories.. 4 million increase..... and that is not helping Oil prices.. back to flat.

Recent price action is increasingly tight though... a big move is coming.