Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Equity futures are significantly lower (ahead of the jobs data), sp -24pts, we're set to open at 1927. A net daily gain in the 1950/60s will be rather important to wrap up what has been a somewhat turbulent week.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

Well... it sure ain't a pretty pre-market for those long (including yours truly). We're set to open barely 1% above the key Tue' low of 1903.

Best guess... the market battles higher from here... with a net daily gain, and I realise some will roll their eyes at that outlook.

Yet how many times have we seen the market open lower on jobs Friday, only to close net higher? In any case.. today will not be dull, ahead of the 3 day holiday weekend.

early movers...

AAPL -0.9% in the $109.30s
NFLX -4% in the 96s... with a decisive fail of the $100 threshold
TSLA -1.5% in the 242s

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Update from Oscar

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Have a good Friday.
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7.24am... sp -20pts... so we're back to 1931.

VIX instruments:   TVIX (2x long) +7.5%...  XIV (1x short) -3.5%

Still an hour until jobs data though...
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7.57am.... meanwhile....

time to shop... back soon
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8.31am.. Monthly jobs:    173k net job gains , with a headline rate of 5.1%

Frankly, its a lousy number for the macro econ-bulls.
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Equity indexes... twitchy,  sp -20pts.. 1931
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8.53am.. ohoh, we have a snap lower.. .sp -35pts... 1916...  just 13pts away from a key break.

There is rising support around 1918 at the open... anything <1915.. would be decisive.

sp -30pts... 1921.

Long day ahead!
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9.13am.. sp -27pts... 1924....  1% away from the key higher low of 1903.

One thing is for sure...  we ain't going quietly into the weekend.

notable weakness: NFLX -3.7% in the $97s.
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9.39am.. opening black-fail candle in the VIX.....  bears beware... they play out more often than not

Considering the market mood and price drop... the VIX is only +5%.


9.42am.. VIX candle remains black....    with sp'1930


9.46am.. Reversal candles appearing all over the place... inc' AAPL.

VIX is probably the tell right now.  

Rallying on Goldilocks jobs data?

The week is set to conclude with the monthly jobs data, and with Thursday already having seen another sig' downward swing from sp'1975 to 1944 - settling @ 1951, from a pure cyclical perspective, the market is set to rally into the weekend.


sp'weekly

Trans, weekly

Summary

*it won't take much to push the Trans' net higher for the week, and with two consecutive net weekly gains - with spike floors, it would bode for at least another week or two higher in the rest of the market.
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Equity bulls will clearly struggle to turn the current weekly candle for the sp'500 positive by the Friday close, but there is still a rather clear spike floor of 1903 - a notable higher low.

All things considered, market should battle upward into the weekend, and across much of next week. The sp'2000 threshold looks a somewhat easy target.

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Looking ahead

Friday will be all about the jobs data.. market is expecting net job gains of 223k, with a marginally lower headline jobless rate of 5.2%.
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*I hold a micro AAPL-long position overnight, seeking an exit in the $112s before the holiday weekend.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

It was a day of swings for US equities, with the sp'500 settling +2pts @ 1951 (range 1975/1944). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued upside.. at least to test the psy' level of 2000 next week.


sp'daily5

Dow

Summary

Little to add.

US equities look set to battle broadly upward into FOMC week. First target is the sp'2000 threshold, with the market likely to max out somewhere within the 2010/2050 zone.
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*I hold AAPL-long overnight, seeking an exit into the weekend.
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a little more later...