With equities starting a new week with significant net daily gains, the VIX was crushed across the day, settling -.8.9% @ 12.20. Near term outlook is borderline, as the equity bulls are now battling to break above the recent marginally lower high of sp'2112.
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX remains very subdued. The big 20 threshold looks out of range until the sp'500 loses the 2000 threshold, and that sure doesn't look likely in the near term.
*I remain long VIX.. and this trade is starting to get a little annoying. I have little interest in exiting until the 15/16s.
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US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +26pts @ 2104. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.5% and 1.2% respectively. Near term outlook is now borderline, bears need to hold the market under the recent failed rally attempt of sp'2112.
sp'60min
Summary
*moderate chop in the closing hour.
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A tiresome and frustrating day to begin the week.
Considering we're just 1.5% away from a new historic high, it remains bizarre how twitchy the mainstream generally are.
Best guess.. renewed downside. The bigger weekly cycles are still suggestive of Dow 17000, sp'2040s, and VIX in the 16/17s.
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US equities are set to close significantly higher, and regardless of whether the market settles a touch above.. or below the sp'2100 threshold, the bears face major problems if sustained price action across Tue/Wed' >2115. Gold and Oil are both holding sig' gains of 1.0% and 2.3% respectively.
sp'60min
Summary
For now.. it remains arguably just a bounce.. but clearly.. we're within 0.5% of breaking a higher high in the short term.
To me, the notion that we now have a key floor for the late summer of sp'2067 is nonsense.
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If you're on the short side and thought your day was difficult...
.. bearish theme parks (well, except DIS.. on long term) :)
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Changable skies in London city this evening.. much like my mood...
The particularly depressing aspect is that summer will be wrapping up in around four weeks.
