Monday, 10 August 2015

2pm update - market clawing

US equities continue to claw higher, with a new intra high of sp'2103, with VIX in the low 12s. Metals are holding sig' gains, Gold +$12, with Silver +3.6%. Miners are similarly holding most of the gains, the ETF of GDX +4.4%. Broadly though, metals/miners do not look floored on a multi-year basis.


sp'60min


Summary

Little to add.

Clearly, the mainstream is back to 'new highs are coming' mantra.... and extremely relieved the Dow won't fall for an 8th day.

I'm still guessing.. this is a mere bounce.
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1pm update - stuck around 2100

US equity indexes are looking stuck around the sp'2100 threshold. Clearly, the bulls would achieve a provisional victory on a daily close in the sp'2100s.. a mere 1.7% from breaking a new historic high. VIX remains extremely subdued, -7% in the 12.40s.


sp'60min



Summary

Well, the hourly cycle is still powering upward. Clear resistance - as at today's close will be 2106.

Any Tuesday gap into the 2110s would be even more of a problem than the nonsense we saw last Wednesday.

For now though.. by definition, today's move remains a bounce... unless a higher high is achieved.
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notable strength: AAPL.


With the daily cycle clearly broken though.. this is arguably a near perfect bounce..back to the old broken floor.
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1.23pm... Intraday update from Riley.


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:)

12pm update - metals catch a bid

US equities are continuing to build on opening gains, with an intra high of sp'2102, along with VIX 12.29. The precious metals have caught a particularly strong bid this morning, Gold +$15, with Silver +3.8%. The related miners are naturally spiralling upward, with the ETF of GDX +5.0%.


sp'60min



GLD, daily



Summary

*No doubt some in the gold bug community will be getting overly excited at this mornings sharp gains, yet this mornings gains do nothing to change the broader trend.

Just like the notion that $1130 was a key multi-year floor for Gold, the recent low of $1072 looks set to be broken... the only issue is whether this month.. or next.
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As for the broader equity market.. its clearly a strong start to the week for the bulls, but overall market mood sure doesn't suggest these gains will hold across the week.. never mind be built upon.
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VIX update from Mr T.


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time for tea.