US equities are holding significant gains, with the sp'500 on the edge of the 2100 threshold. Equity bull maniacs need a daily close >2114 to open the door to new historic highs. Considering the broader weekly/monthly cycles though.. nothing has changed, and the price momentum continues to swing toward the bears.
sp'60min
Summary
Hourly MACD (blue bar histogram) is now positive cycle, with a bull cross. In theory... upside into Tue/Wed.
Again.. the critical issue is whether a break >2114 is achieved.
Best guess... another marginal lower high... with a daily close under the 200dma, now @ 2074.
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notable weakness, QCOM...
A rather ugly chart... repeated rally fails last week... sub $60s look due.
US equities are building significant gains, with another attempt to break and hold above the sp'2100 threshold. VIX is naturally crushed lower into the mid 12s. With the USD +0.1% in the DXY 97.70s, commodities are mixed.. Gold +$3, whilst Oil remains weak, -0.4%.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
Last week was all about repeated rally fails.
This week is simply a case of whether the market can break >2114.
Considering the bigger weekly/monthly cycles.. new highs look very unlikely.
Obvious short-side trades remain AAPL and DIS, having seen extremely decisive trend breaks.
AAPL, daily
Arguably back testing the old (broken) floor... whilst price structure is a bear flag. Bears should be seeking no daily closes in the $120s. AAPL is certainly a stock to watch.. as an indicator for the broader market direction.
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notable weakness: TSLA -1.3%.. as talk continues that every car sale is a loss making sale.
QCOM -0.4%.. nothing significant, but it does standout from most stocks this morning.
Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +8pts, we're set to start the week at 2085. It is highly notable that the Dow and NYSE comp' are both set for death crosses today/tomorrow. USD is a little higher, +0.1% in the DXY 97.60s, with Gold +$4, and Oil +0.7%.
sp'daily5
Dow, daily
Summary
So... we're set to open higher, but then... that was the case last Monday, Tue', Wed', and Thursday, and that didn't work out so well for the bulls.
Lets see where we are around 11am... and then I will be looking for some weakness for rest of the day.
Dow 17K, along with sp'2040s, are both near term targets, and considering the recent repeated rally failings, I remain broadly bearish.
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Overnight China action. The Shanghai comp' saw broad gains build across the Monday session, settling +4.9% @ 3928. The gains are the strongest seen in some time, but with the SSEC already close to the 4K level, will some dare sell.. despite threats from the China leadership?
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Doomer chat.. Hunter with Holter
Frankly, its more of the same nonsense from a rather standard 'dollar doomer'.
Every time Holter wears that hat in an interview, Gold loses $1. I remain holding to the big $1000 threshold. However, with the USD set to break >DXY 100, the 120s will then be due, and that is going to really hinder the metals.
As ever... make of that... what you will.
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Ohh, and as for those death crosses. I realise some will dismiss them.. after all, they are very lagging indicators, but still.. they are indicative of most indexes having been stuck for many months... and are now breaking new lows.
Have a good Monday.
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8.13am.. Futures jump a little... sp +14pts... that makes for 2091.
So.. again, it is an issue of 'who wants to buy in the sp'2100s?'.
notable weakness: FCX -2.2% @ $10.30s
TLT -0.5% in the $123s... but 125/126 looks a valid target later this week.
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8.34am.. It would seem the bonus futures pop is due to some story that the Greek banks are going to get some more money thrown at them in the near term.
Yeah.. clearly, all is well in Greece again. Nothing for the Greeks to be concerned about. Now they can go to their local bank and make use of all the savings they have. Oh wait.... yeah.. capital controls.... still.
